Hillary Cannot Win in November 2008

It is 22 months until Nov 2008, when we will go to the polls and elect the next President of the United States of America. It is a wide open race because the sitting president is unable to run, the vice-president has said he won't run, so the race will be wide open for both major parties for the first time in a my lifetime. The candidates are starting to form exploratory committees in order to start fund raising, or in the case of my home Senator Chris Dodd, just skip the exploratory committee and go right for the run. By the way, what is the value of the exploratory committee anyways, seems just like a huge waste of time and money?

Democrats candidates are jumping into the fray from all over the country, but right now the top two candidates are Senator Obama Barack from Illinois and Senator Hillary Clinton of New York, via Washington DC, via Arkansas, via Connecticut, via Illinois. This could be be a unique period in US politics since Barack could be the first black presidential candidate from a major party, and Clinton could be the first woman presidential candidate.

However, there is speculation they could ultimately run together, but it is way too early for that. More than likely, the democrats will beat each other to a bloody pulp up to and through the primaries, spending a ton of money in the process, and whoever comes out ahead will be three steps behind the republican candidate. The republicans, who are much better at organizing and building consensus (or forcing it, not sure which) will spend more time and effort getting behind a candidate earlier and focus on removing the other candidates, so they can stock pile cash for the race that really matters in November.

Honestly, I don't think either Barack or Clinton will ultimately win this marathon. After all, where was Bill Clinton in the polls in January 1990? Anyone know or remember? I am certain he is was not the the front runner. So if history holds, and it often does, another democrat will surface between now and next summer who will become the new national sweetheart. In the meantime, lets examine these two candidates starting with Senator Clinton.

I don't believe that Hilary Clinton has a snow ball's chance in Hell of winning the general election for one reason. She is hated by close to half the country. Whether it is because of her marriage to Slick Willie, whether it was her attempt to socialize our health care system in 1994, or her leftist tree hugging liberal tendencies she is always going to be remembered for what she was then. It is not going to matter how far her positions move towards the center of the political spectrum, the neo-conservatives hater her and will spend a ridiculous amount of money to ensure that Clinton never wins. If you thought the Swift-Water stuff was bad, you have not seen anything. A Hillary Clinton candidacy is just a massive gift to republican fund-raising efforts.

Some people will say that the Republicans and more specifically the compassionate conservatives (pardon me, while I choke on the vomit in the back of my throat) have been beaten down by the November elections, by the war in Iraq, and by their leaders overall perceived arrogance and incompetence. However, Sen. Clinton has such a deep history, and is resented and hated so much by so many that it would be an uphill battle for her to get the approval of the middle 20%, who ultimately decides who will win the White House.

If the democrats are smart, and I still question that concept, they will choose a less polarizing candidate than Senator Clinton. I am not sure if the Democrats realize the election results were more a rejection of the war in Iraq, lack of congressional ethics and excessive pork, or will the democratic leadership allow its hard core liberals to sabotage the party and pull it left and into disarray. The closer to the center that any candidate treads, the better chance they will have of winning the end game.

I do believe that this country could be ready for a woman president. After all, many modern countries have had a woman lead their governments in recent years. However, the successful female candidate will need to be a much more long term moderate with no excessive baggage or major skeletons. She would have to be non-controversial, without a national reputation. Very similar to the way Bill Clinton or Jimmy Carter came to rise through the ranks in 1976 and 1992.
Also lets consider that no sitting Senator has won the presidency since 1960, and no northern candidate has won also since 1960. And as Senator Lloyd Bensten once said of Dan Quayle, She is no Jack Kennedy.

I will consider Obama Barack chances in a few days.