2006 NL East Predictions

2006 NL Predictions

As I stated in the AL Predictions, this year is a bit different because the World Baseball Classic could have a significant impact on the regular season, with an injury to a key player before the season starts. I know many folks will say that injuries can happen in spring training, which is true, but in theory the players will not be going all out in split-squad games in March, but will be defending the honor of their country. Players will try to reach for that extra push, and could wind up seriously hurting themselves, just watch out.

In addition, pitching depth will also be key for the NL. The team with the best pitching, should go deep into the playoffs, and may have the honor of losing in the World Series in October to the AL champion.

Finally, I will admit that I am more familiar with the AL teams than I am with these teams. However, I prefer the NL game to the AL game. I like the strategy associated with the NL, it is the thinking man’s league. There is no station-to-station baseball, waiting for the long ball. It is the home of the double switch, and fast paced games. It has the pitchers batters, and no lineup stacked from one to nine with .300 hitters. Stolen bases and sacrifices still matter in the NL. It is how baseball is supposed to be played and obviously the best fact of all no DH!

Atlanta Braves - This is to me is probably the hardest division to call this season. I have for the past 3 years predicted another team, usually the Phillies, would win this division. Somehow, the Braves have continued to win for 14 straight years. I know some of those were when they were in the NL West, but lets not lose sight that is quite impressive run. In order to break the streak, and prove my ineptitude, I am going to pick them win the division this year, which probably means the streak will end.

The offense still has some solid veterans in the Jones brothers, Chipper and Andruw, Marcus Giles, and the recently acquired Edgar Renteria. They also have probably the best crop of young players able to compete at the major league level. They include Adam LaRoche, Brian McCann, Jeff Francoeur and Ryan Langerhaus. This group was essentially given on the job training and won the division last year in spite of the rookie-infested lineup. There is no reason to believe this offense will not help carry them most of the way this year. Chipper Jones is a year older, and will probably spend some time on the disabled list again this year. Andruw Jones should be able to build on his near MVP season last year, as he matures. We forget he was a 19-year-old rookie in 1996, when he played in the World Series against the Yankees. Otherwise, this team should excel in a mediocre division. The pitching is going to be interesting. Gone from their run is pitching coach, Leo Mazzone, who led the Braves staff for years. It will be interesting to see how former Met Roger McDowell does this bunch. They have John Smoltz and Tim Hudson anchoring the rotation. Smoltz did a great job of moving back into the starting rotation, after closing the past few years. He was solid and remains a top option, but he is a year older. Tim Hudson seems to be a question mark having thrown many innings in his career, and is beginning to break down. If he is healthy, then he can be one of the best pitchers in the league. John Thomson, Jorge Sosa, and Horatio Ramirez round out the starting rotation. The bullpen however remains a huge question mark. Chris Reitsma is currently penciled in as the closer, but that can easily change if he implodes from the pressure. Atlanta has had multiple closers (John Rocker, Mark Wohlers, Mike Stanton, John Smoltz, Kerry Lightenberg, etc.) during their run, so this does not seem to be a large concern. The relief corps is young, and should be an ample bridge. This should be the real test of manager Bobby Cox’s ability, but I have to go with history, which is usually a mistake.

New York Mets – The Mets made the biggest splash during the off-season, by making moves and improving at the direct expense of its divisional rivals. They benefited from the Marlins fire sale, by picking up Carlos Delgado and Paul Loduca. They outbid the Phillies for the services of Billy Wagner, one of the premiere closers in the league. This makes the Mets an offensive force to be reckoned with this year. They have Jose Reyes, David Wright, Cliff Floyd and Carlos Beltran returning. I hope that the pressure will be off Beltran having a year in New York under his belt and Delgado batting behind him will make him better than he was last year. The rest of the lineup includes a platoon of Xavier Nady and Victor Diaz in RF and Kax Matsui and Brett Boone fighting it out for 2b. If Boone can regain his old form, not the shell of the player he was last year or if Matsui shows half the spark he allegedly had in Japan, then the Mets will be as solid up and down as almost any other NL team

Shea Stadium remains a pitchers park, but their two horses are a year older. Pedro Martinez is already battling a sore toe from last year, and wants to play in the WBC for the Dominican Republic. Tom Glavine is no longer the stud he used to be when he played in Atlanta, but he is still a quality pitcher, who can eat up innings, but relying on him to be the #2 starter is asking a lot. The rest of the rotation is the average Steve Trachsel, the below average Victor Zambrano, and the young Aaron Heilman. They also brought Jose Lima in for spring training, but short of an injury, I don’t see him being much of a factor. They might regret trading Jae Seo and Kris Benson if Pedro or Glavine break down during the season. The closer is solid with Wagner. The problem again for the Mets is going to be getting from the starter to Wagner. Manager Willie Randolph will probably be making a lot of trips ot the mound in the middle innings, working match-ups and trying to maximize the weakest unit of this team.

Philadelphia Phillies – I have been optimistic for this team since Jim Thome signed there a few years ago. Well, now Thome is gone, giving NL Rookie sensation Ryan Howard first base to himself. He can go into spring training, without having to look over his shoulder and worry about being traded in July. He will be on the right side of the infield with Chase Utley, the other rookie stud from last year. Pair them up with Jimmy Rollins at short and David Bell at third and you have one of the best combined infields in the league. Bobby Abreau in right, Pat Burrell in left anchor the outfield and the new centerfielder is Aaron Rowand, who they got in the Thome trade, giving them a real lead off hitter this year. Offensive prowess will not be a problem for this team.

The ace of this team is the former Yankee Jon Lieber, who is a solid pitcher, but not a classic ace. The rest of the staff is very young, and has a lot of maturing. Luckily Brett Myers, Cory Lidle, Ryan Madson, Ryan Franklin or Gavin Floyd, will get 38 games against the Nationals and the Marlins, so the Phillies should win about half their games. I used to say that Larry Bowa was a terrible manager, but they have done no better under Charlie Manual, and if they meet my predictions this year then Ed Wade, the General Manager should be fired at the end of the season, if not sooner since he has not done anything in his time there to justify keeping him.

Washington Nationals – How bad do you need to be for Sammy Sosa to retire rather than playing for you? How bad is that the big off-season acquisition, Alfonso Soriano, is already demanding another trade since he does not want to leave second base, where they already have Jose Vidro? Nick Johnson is a stud in the making, and the definition of injury prone player. He is always on the verge of breaking out, then breaking down. The aforementioned Jose Vidro is also starting to break down. Cristan Guzman was the worst signing ever last year, and the Nats are stuck with him again this year. Ryan Zimmerman should be refreshing at third base, but I would see him exiting stage left in a few years when he becomes a free agent. The outfield is a bunch of journeyman and the volatile Jose Guillen, who is one spark away from blowing his top.

The ageless Livian Hernandez is a solid starter who can throw a ton of innings. John Patterson, Ramon Ortiz, Brian Lawrence and Tony Armas Jr round out this below average rotation. I always like Lawrence when he was in San Diego, but I am guessing Kevin Towers, the Padres GM, was not impressed which is why he let him go. Chad Cordero has been very good at getting saves and should rack up a fair number again this year. The rest of the bullpen is a collection of young and old, with one similar attribute, they all come cheap. It is a shame, since this team will not be able to compete until they are owned by someone other than MLB, and Her Commandant Selig refuses to sell the team until he has finished fleecing the residents of Washington DC for a new stadium and other concessions, that will set the new owners up on easy street. What a way to start off in a new city, by pissing off the fan base. But that is another story.

Florida Marlins – This team can be summed up easily: Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis and 23 other chumps. That is not completely fair, since I think Mike Jacobs, who the fish picked up in the Carlos Delgado trade, should be decent if he can learn some plate discipline, perhaps becoming a poor man’s Adam Dunn. Jeremy Hermida also showed some potential last year, and should continue to grow this year. Hopefully, the can keep this core together for a few years, and compete towards the end of the decade.