Sunday, February 05, 2006

2006 AL Predictions

So it is early February 2006, pitchers and catchers are due to report on the 16th. It is time to make my annual (usually poor) predictions for the upcoming season.

First, this year is going to be a bit different during the spring because of the World Baseball Classic (WBC). This even sponsored by MLB and sanctioned by the Players Union, is essentially throwing players into game time situations a month earlier than normal, and they will be excepted to perform for their country, while getting paid nothing. I believe this is going to be a big exhibition, think All-Star spread out over a month, where the largest concern will be which player is seriously injured and thus this injury has a large impact upon his team’s regular season performance. This tournament should be played in November or December. Then the players not on a playoff team would be able to train, work out together in October, and be more prepared to play with no limits or caveats. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Second, there is going to be a recurring them in my preview that starting pitching is considered a premium and the majority of the teams lack quality and/or depth in this area. All of the playoff caliber teams and some of the fringe teams only have a few quality proven starters that will be responsible for carrying their teams throughout the stopper. The player they will look to stop a two, three or four game losing streak. I only see last year’s World Series participants, Chicago White Sox and Houston Astro’s, having significant and quality depth at the starting pitcher position. So let’s go:

AL EAST
NY Yankees – (being a biased Yankee fan), I still think the Yankees are the team to beat in the East. They don’t seem to have improved much, but they also have not moved back. They have upgraded with Johnny Damon in CF, replacing the aging Bernie Williams, who will take over the primary DH role, and bat off the bench. Damon brings stability to the top of the order, that the Bombers have not had since Chuck Knoblaugh and his erratic throwing problems went away in 2000. Damon’s arrival allows SS Derek Jeter to move back to the #2 hole, and 3b Alex Rodriguez 3rd in the batting order. This seems to play to both of their strengths. Although Jeter might be a better lead-off hitter than Damon, his strengths and ability to move runners, hit to the other field and willingness to sacrifice his production for the teams, makes the Captain better suited for batting 2nd. With reigning MVP A-Rod hitting between Jeter and some combination of RF Gary Sheffield, LF Hideki Matsui, and/or 1b Jason Giambi, he should continue to pound the ball. The middle of the order is older, and probably more susceptible to injury but should have no problem scoring runs. It is going to be difficult to find anyone to pitch around in the top 6 of the order. Rounding out the bottom of the order, the Yankees will send out an aging C Jorge Posada, a past his prime DH Bernie Williams and the young phenom from last year 2b Robinson Cano. Unfortunately is this where rallies will go to die, and I am guessing that a mid-season acquisition will come to relieve Williams of day-to-day responsibility and put Giambi squarely on the bench as the primary DH.

The 2006 Yankees will go only as far as the pitching of Mike Mussina and Randy Johnson take them. These two are considered the jewels of the staff, and need to step up and take responsibility for this team, especially under the guidance of first time pitching coach Ron Guidry. Johnson has a lot of explaining to do (with his left arm) after that stinker of Game 3 in the divisional playoffs last year and other than that gutsy performance by Mussina in Game 6 of the 2003 ALCS, I have been overall unimpressed with Moose in pinstripes. If they fail to deliver this year, then they both should be considered NY failures. Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright were essentially useless and/or injured last year, providing virtually no value whatsoever. I would not be surprised if one of these two (probably Pavano) is sent packing via a trade before the teams head north in March. The rest of the over crowded staff is rounded out by the real saviors of the 2005 team, Shawn Chacon, Aaron Small and Ching-Ming Wang. They all deserve a shot in the rotation, but Small will probably start in the pen as a long reliever, which limits the value that he was able to provide to the team last year. It seems seniority and larger contracts will prevail, and that could prove to be a mistake as the year wears on, and might be an Achilles heal.

The bullpen is anchored by the almost untouchable Mariano Rivera. Against the rest of Major League Baseball, Mo remains the best that ever played, but a combination of times seen, a great lineup, and ultimately aging, he remains suspect against their largest AL East rivals, the Boston Red Sox. During the regular season he will be fine, but I don’t think he should pitch in 70+ and be asked to save 40+ games this year. The Yankees have completely rebuilt their bridge to Rivera bringing in a slew of solid middle relievers. These include former closers Octavio Dotel and Kyle Farnsworth and career setup players Ron Villone and Mike Myers, plus the return of Tanyon Sturtze. Some how this group is going to need to bring the Yankees from the 5th inning through the 8th without allowing too much damage to get to Rivera. This could pose to be their largest problem, but as the saying goes, every team has this same situation. I am not sure what it is about middle relievers and why they excel one year and not the next, and in one location but not their new surroundings. All and all it is a very strange situation, which someone should try to figure out before another mult-million dollar contract is spent on a run of the mill middle reliever, but that is another story.

Boston Red Sox – I am not sure what to make of their off-season moves, both on the field and off. The Theo Epstein thing was just strange, how he left the organization on Halloween in a gorilla suit to avoid the media, then slinks back in January after no one apparently wanted the job. I just wonder if this disarray will have an effect on the field as the season progresses. The players are saying the right thing about supporting Theo and glad that he is back, but having seen some of the most disorganized front offices with the Yankees in the 1980’s and 1990’s just makes me wonder. However, it does seem that Epstein ultimately has gotten his way, by not holding onto the stars of 2004, and has attempted to recast the BoSox as a more athletic and younger team, with a stronger sense of defense ingrained into the organization. If nothing else, this team is built to play beyond the 2006 season, something that may not be said about their rivals in the Bronx. So let’s take a look:

The Mark Loretta trade is an absolute steal. They traded a Doug Mirabelli (who was knuckleball pitcher Tim Wakefield’s private catcher), to the Padres for one of the best all around 2b. It seems to me Boston took SD to the cleaners. The Red Sox also won in the Marlins fire sale, which could be collusion since the Red Sox owners, used to be the owners of the Marlins, but that is another issue. Coming to Boston is Yankee beater SP Josh Beckett, former Yankee 3b Mike Lowell and Guillermo Mota, who was traded to Cleveland for CF Coco Crisp. Returning from last year is captain C Jason Variteck, LF Manny Ramirez, RF Trot Nixon, DH David (Big Papi) Ortiz and 1b Kevin Youkalis who will share the job with free agent acquisition JT Snow. Lowell is coming off two down years, and one has to wonder can be bounce back in the AL. Crisp has never played exclusively in CF, and poses a defensive risk in the expansive Fenway Park. I think they have succeeded in making the team younger and somewhat more defensive. The offensive numbers will probably lag behind past years, but they should win sufficient games depending on the Manny Ramirez situation. Manny began the off-season requesting a trade. The Red Sox front office says they have been trying to move him, but it is difficult to find a team, that is willing to part with enough players and/or money to justify the Red Sox moving his bat to another team. They are currently in talks with the Anaheim Angels of Los Angeles California, West Coast, United States of America. It is worth keeping an eye on to see how Manny responds, because if he is “Manny” and oblivious ot the situation then the Red Sox will be fine, but if he sulks, ala Randy Johnson with the Mariners in 1998, then the Boston fans could be in for a long season.

As with the Yankees, the Red Sox pitching staff currently lacks sufficient and proven depth. Curt Schilling will be back to anchor this staff, but having had significant ankle problems in 2004 and 2005, makes me question his durability. David Wells is still with the team, though he has requested a trade to a West Coast team, I am guessing this will happen during spring training, when teams see Boomer can still throw. Even if he is not traded, his weight, his health and his attitude will be a problem for whatever team he ultimately plays. He is good to great when he is motivated, but only mediocre to average, when not pushed. Beckett, the 2003 World Series MVP, is only seven games over .500 for his career and has a history of blister problems. Pitchers moving from the NL to the AL, often have a hard time adjusting so it could be a long season for him. The rotation is rounded out by Matt Clement, Tim Wakefield and the rookie Jonathon Papelbon. The closer is the inconsistent Keith Foulke and the rest of the relief core, Mike Timlin, David Riske, Bronson Arroyo, Rudy Saeanez, and Julian Tavarez are very serviceable and probably as good as any other middle relievers. The weak link in the bullpen is still Foulke, and if he falters, will Craig Hanson be ready for the big time this year? I think they will still be strong enough to hold off the hard charging Blue Jays, and what should be the vastly improved Orioles.

Toronto Blue Jays - I am impressed by what the Blue Jays have done this off-season, but unfortunately, it won’t be enough to conquer both the Yankees and the Red Sox. If either team above them falters the Jays could slip into 2nd place finish and possibly a wild card, which would be a huge accomplishment for them, but it probably is not going to happen this year. They brought two pitchers SP AJ Burnett and Closer BJ Ryan north of border, to bring a major upgrade at both areas. Joining Burnett will be former CY Young winner Roy Halladay, former Yankee Ted Lilly, Gustavo Chacin and Josh Towers. The relief corps is young and maturing, and should prove to be a good bridge to Ryan, and his entire 42 career saves with 36 coming last year for the Orioles. It seems the Blue Jays have risked everything on one endeavor, hoping that Ryan is not a one-year wonder, but a solid long term closer. I hope for their sake that he pans out.

The offense is a bit lopsided right now with 4 players able to play 1b/3b/dh. Lyle Overbay, Troy Glaus and SHea Hillenbrand are currently slotted into those three positions with Eric Hinske being the odd man out, who could possibly be traded before spring training is over. What is also odd is that the 2b/ss pairing Aaron Hill and Russ Adams, have just one year experience and are being asked to hold down the center of the infield. It is a lot to ask of you players. The OF is solid with CF Vernon Wells anchoring LF Reed Johnson and RF Alexis Rios, who hopefully after a terrible sophomore campaign is ready to live up to his elite status. They are a young team, who have spent some money to improve their team and should be fun to watch for a few years to come.

Baltimore Orioles – The Orioles biggest acquisition might have come off the field this season. Manager Sam Perlozzo, was able to convince his old friend and best man at his wedding, Leo Mazzone to come and be his pitching coach. Mazzone who was the Atlanta Braves pitching coach, through their amazing 14 year run of divisional championship who helped guide Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Steve Avery, Mark Wohlers, and many others to pitching greatness in Georgia. Can he bring that same magic to Maryland with Rodrigo Lopez, Kris Benson, Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera and Bruce Chen? It would certainly add credibility to his hall of fame credentials, as the best non-managing coach of the past quarter century.

The Orioles offense made more waves regarding trade requests than anything else this winter. Both SS Miguel Tejeda and C/1b/DH Javy Lopez requested to be traded, because the team was not doing enough to be competitive in the AL East, and quite frankly I need to agree with them. They acquired Corey Patterson, Keith Millar and Jeff Coninie who all come with different negative luggage or age concerns. The pitching is atrocious, with no clear leader. I always had hoped that Kris Benson would amount to more than a .500 pitcher that he had been with the Pirates and the Mets, and maybe he can be in the AL. Bruce Chen has bounced (8 teams) around more than any 29 year old that I am aware. Leo Mazzone certainly has his job cut out for him with this team.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays - Anything you read about the Rays says they will be competitive in 2008 and beyond. They are rebuilding again for the 3rd (?) time in 8 seasons. Some have proposed allowing some teams like the Devil Rays to float between divisions to give them a chance to be competitive, since it is difficult to gain traction when you plan the Yankees and Red Sox 19 times each season. IN order to start making money, they need to win, and in order to win they need to start making money. It is a touch situation for the Rays, and one that is not going to be solved in 2006, as the Rays wind up in the AL East Basement again this year.

AL Central
Chicago White Sox – I have to give the White Sox the credit they deserve for winning last year and bringing the first baseball championship to Chicago since 1917. They won the old fashion way, with solid pitching, smart base running, timely hitting and strong defense. They were a team similar to the Yankees in the late 1990’s no superstar or one dimensional player which distracted from the team, just a group of players working together under a young and energetic manager, Ozzie Guillen, who gelled at the right time to win the whole thing. Why am I dwelling on the past, when this is supposed to be a preview for this season? Well, the White Sox have kept the core from last year, and seemingly improved. They have to be the odds on favorite to repeat. They have the most pitching depth, and a solid offense. It is on paper, a great combination. If you look at the past few champions they are one hit wonders. The Red Sox imploded on Curt Schillings ankle and a different team now (see above). The Marlins had a fire sale this off-season after just missing another wild card slot last year. The Angles continue to compete, but are unable to get that mojo (or stupid rally monkey) back they had in 2002 and the Diamondbacks are back in the crapper. None of those teams was built for longevity. I think the White Sox could be a force to reckon with for a few years to come.

The infied remains in tact with AJ Pierzynski behind the dish, 1b Paul Konerko, 2b Tag Iguchi, SS Juan Uribe and 3b Joe Crede. Scott Podsednik will continue to patrol left and swipe bases, Jermaine Dye is the modern day David Justic in Right, he just keeps winding up on playoff teams. Brian Anderson takes over in Center from Aaron Rowand who was traded to Philadelphia which brought Jim Thome to the second city. Thome had many injury problems during his stay in Philly, and Ryan Howard was ready to take over at 1b. The most telling thing about this team, was after this trade, Thome got on the phone and called Paul Konerko, his fellow first baseman and pleaded with him to resign in Chicago. How often to you have a player who has been just traded to that team call a free agent who happens to play the same position (yes I know Thome will ultimately DH, but that is not the point)? Almost never, but that is what happened that brought Konerko back to the Windy City to share 1B/DH with Thome. That is teamwork, and it should be commended.

IF it is possible, the White Sox pitching is going to be better this year than last. They lost El Duque Orlando Hernandez to the Diamondbacks, but in return, they got Javier Vazquez, who is an excellent pitcher and not being asked to be the ace in this rotation. Although he struggled in the second half of his one year in New York, he is an inning horse that throws many strikeouts and will fit well into a rotation that includes Mark Buehrle, Freddy Garcia, Jose Contreas, Jon Garland and the up and coming Brandon McCarthy. What Guillen did was the bullpen and the closer role last year was masterful and should be emulated by budget conscious teams around the league. By mid-summer, he was using a closer by committee approach, which I have panned in the past that worked out quite successfully. He would bring on the best pitcher for the situation they were currently facing in the game. For instance if he was facing a tough situation in the 7th inning, then he would bring in the person who had earned the last four saves, in this non-save situation. This philosophy allows the White Sox payroll flexibility, since they don’t have to shell outrageous amounts of money for player to pitch one inning or less.

Cleveland Indians - The Indians made an impressive run at the White Sox at the end of last season, with a young and talented team that they can parlay that run into a strong start to the season. They have a young nucleus and seem to be using the model they employed in the late 1980’s to sign young players to long term contracts. This worked for them then as they were the kings of the AL Central in the mid-1990’s with Thome, Baerga, Vizquel, Ramirez and Lofton. The Chicago Cleveland rivalry could become the next Yankee/Red Sox or Cubs/Cardinals over the next few years. The Indians have a stong lineup with a lot of power in DH Travis Hafner, C Victor Martinez, 1b Ben Broussard, and young SS Jhonny Peralta. The outfield is fast with Jason Michael, Grady Sizemore and Casey Blake. Aaron Boone brings experience on the hot corner.

The starting pitching is solid with Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, Paul Byrd, Jake Westbrook, and Jason Johnson. Though this is a young staff, they will mature into a solid core if Cleveland can keep them together. The bullpen is fine with Bob Wickman acting as the very heavy anchor. Although Wickman is injury prone, when he is healthy, he is probably the most under rated closer in the business and that again can only help the Indians. They should be in the wildcard chase right until the end of the season and could actually sneak into the playoffs.

Minnesota Twins – The Twins probably have the best battery combination, Johan Santana and Joe Mauer, in all of baseball. They have the human highlight reel in Centerfielder Torii Hunter. They have the best bullpen and one of the best closers, Joe Nathan, in baseball. In spite of all this, the Twins will be lucky to finish 3rd in this division. They are lucky that the Tigers and Royals play in the same division and are terrible. It seems that their talented farm system and unwillingness to spend money to sign players because of their knucklehead cheap owner, Carl Pohland, has finally caught up with this once powerful and proud franchise.

Detroit Tigers – Dysfunctional is the best way to describe this franchise. They fired Alan Trammel at the end of last season, even though he was a hometown hero and was supposed to be the person to see the team through these growing pains, even though they lost 119, 90 and 91 under his tenure. The Tigers went and hired Jim Leyland out of retirement who readily admitted that he did not even know half the players on his roster. I know Leyland was successful in the past, and Jack McKeon’s success in Florida in 2003 might have sparked Detroit management to reach deep for Leyland. However, is he really a rebuilding type, who is ready to lose 80-90 games again this season? I don’t know who the candidates were, but a younger managerial candidate probably deserved this job, rather than a recycled manager.

Kansas City Royals – I am not sure that KC is any better than their Triple-A affiliate in Omaha, who finished 4th out of 8 in their Pacific Coast League Division. The uninspiring Buddy Bell leads this young team in battle, and there seem to be no indications that this year’s version will be any better or different from the past few years, where they have lost 100 or more three out of the past four seasons. Mike Sweeney returns, to become the subject of trade rumors come July. Mike MacDougal overcame arm and control problems to regain the closers role, and if he remains consistent could become trade bait as well. It almost seems as if the Royals have become like the KC Athletics in the 60’s, a farm team for the rest of the league, where its players are not retained or traded to the upper echelon to become superstars elsewhere. Where have you gone George Brett?

AL WEST
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, California West Coast, Pacific Time Zone, USA – The Angels remain the cream of the crop in the west, though I can never be sure what there actual franchise name is going to be. I think with NHL’s Anaheim Mighty Ducks dropping the Mighty part of their name, maybe the Angels should become the LA Mighty Angels, but again this is another story. The Angels remain the team to beat primarily because the Oakland Athletics keep trying to convince us that Moneyball is the way to go, and prefers to spend time and effort on analytics and won’t pony up the cash for quality players, and Seattle and Texas are projected to be not good.

The starting pitching is good, but not great across the board. They have one large starting pitcher in Bartolo Colon, one young in John Lackey, a converted closer in Kelvim Escobar, one sophomore in Ervin Santana, and one journeyman with 6 career starts in Henry Carrasco. They have a top notch closer in Francisco Rodriguez and a bullpen that is second only to the Twins. I think this team is going to have tough time outside their division with this pitching, and I see many high scoring affairs, which is going to put an even heavier burden on the bullpen.

The offense is going to score many runs with RF Vlad Guerrero, 3b Chone Figgins, LF Garratt Anderson, and CF Darin Erstad. Casey Kotchman gets the nod at 1b, and Dallas MacPherson still needs to be proving he can play at the major league level. If this team is able to acquire Manny Ramirez from the Red Sox, then there will be no stopping this juggernaut until October, when they will most assuredly crash and burn in the playoffs.

Oakland Athletics – The one thing the A’s have going for them is they probably have the best starting pitching west of Chicago. They are led by former CY Young winner Barry Zito, along with the homegrown Rich Harden, Danny Haren, Joe Blanton and imported free agent Esteban Loaiza. I am concerned because Harden, Haren and Blanton are all young, with a ton of potential. It just begs the question are we looking at another case of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, where the Cubs just threw those young arms right into the ground, and now neither of them have been injury free for the past two or three seasons. Manager Ken Macha, needs to make sure he does not blow out an elbow or a shoulder on these young guns. This makes the Athletics almost the Anti-Angels in that they have pitching but virtually no hitting.

The A’s offense will be led this year by the acquisition of the Frank “Big Hurt” Thomas, whose nickname used to be about his bat and now it refers to his body. Thomas will be the DH, and will be surrounded with a bunch of up and coming players like SS Bobby Crosby, 1b Dan Johnson, LF Nick Swisher and experience Veterans like 3b Eric Chavez, CF Mark Kotsay, C Jason Kendall and notorious hothead RF Milton Bradley. This team will be competitive but will fall out of contention in August, after the trading deadline. If they get off slow start then look for them to put some of their pitchers on the trading block.

Seattle Mariners – I put the Mariners above the Rangers only because one of these teams needs to finish in 3rd and one needs to be in 4th. I question the wisdom of bringing in a catcher who speaks neither English nor Spanish, the primary language of 95% of the pitchers in the major leagues, but that is exactly what the Mariners did this year by signing Kenji Johjima. The players that have come to the United States from Japan have been generally very good and I am sure that Johjima is also a good suspicious catcher, and a decent hitter, at least that is the scouting report. However, how is he going to communicate with his pitchers, and control a ball game as a catcher is supposed to if he cannot even speak the same language. The appeal of a Japanese player in the Pacific Northwest probably makes sense from a marketing perspective; I am just not convinced this move makes sense in a competitive sense. I hope I am proven wrong and he excels and the Seattle pitching staff raves about working with this guy, but paint me red with skepticism.

The other big story out of Seattle this year will be the continued development of Felix Hernandez, the best 19 year old to play in the major leagues since Dwight Gooden in 1984. I hope that he continues to flash brilliance and give the hope for the M’s in the years to come. Otherwise it is just watching 90 year Jamie Moyer, an injury prone Joel Pineiro, and retreads Gil Meche and Jarrod Washburn. Their closer is “Everyday” Eddie Guardado, who really isn’t everyday anymore, since he is often injured. The bullpen is below average, with only JJ Putz standing out, because his last name is Yiddish for penis.

The offense is nothing to write home about with Ichiro looking to collect 200 hits again and get back on track this year, after an off year in 2005. Adrian Beltre seems to be a hit year wonder, (his contract year with the Dodgers), and shows no signs his old bat is going to return anytime soon. Jeremy Reed was the most coveted CF this off-season after Johnny Damon, which makes absolutely no sense. Reed hit .254/3/45 with 15 stolen bases. I don’t know why everyone is raving about him, but it seems reasonable he will be traded by the All-Star break.

Texas Rangers – Tom Hicks has done nothing with this franchise since he flushed ¼ billion dollars down the drain when he signed Alex Rodriguez in 2001. This years team will have a number of big boppers with 1b Mark Texiera, 3b Hank Blalock and SS Michael Young. The outfield is average with Brad Wilkerson, the jewel of the Alfonso Soriano trade with the Nationals, David Dellucci and Kevin Mench. The pitching seems to be starting from scratch with Kevin Millwood, Adam Eaton and Vincente Padilla all making their Ranger debuts this season. They have a good to great closer in Francisco Cordero, but won’t have many opportunities to use him.

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