2006 NL Central Predictions

St. Louis Cardinals – Tony LaRusso is either the best regular season manager ever or the worst playoff manager ever or both, I am not sure which. The Cardinals should again win the NL Central. They have a solid lineup, anchored by the reigning MVP Albert Pujols. The return of Scott Rolen at third who missed most of last year with a shoulder injury, should also bolster the lineup if he can retun to his 2004 form. Jim Edmonds can still track balls in centerfield like no one else, but his bat has slowed down as he aged. Juan Encarncion will patrol right in place of the retired Larry Walker, and Larry Bigbie is penciled into leftfield. David Eckstein and Junior Spivey will anchor the middle, and Yadir Molina will do the catching. It is a strong all around line-up that will score some runs, and play some solid defense.

Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder and Jeff Suppan lead the pitching staff. Carpenter is prone to break down as the year wears on, and Mulder has shown some wear and tear, like his former Oakland teammate, Tim Hudson. Jeff Suppan is a serviceable 3rd starter, who will do the job when the ball is put in his hands. Jason Marquis and the Aruba knighted Sir Sidney Ponson will make his NL debut this year. Being a 5th starter should allow Ponson to shine, since he does not have the stamina or fortitude to an ace. Jason Isringhausen will again close games down, and he too is starting to show his age, and has broken down too many times the past few years. I am seeing him move to middle relief at some point soon. Can Braden Looper pick up the reigns when Izzy goes down? That will be the key for the Red Birds this summer. LaRusso, will do a find job mixing and matching his bullpen, since that is one of his strengths, but anything less than a World Series championship (which is a long shot), should cost LaRusso his job this year, and maybe that of GM Walt Jockety as well. However, this team could also easily fall out of contention if age, injury and pitching wind up haunting this team.

Houston Astros – The best thing the Astros have going for them is their pitching. Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettite, and Brandon Backe are the top of the rotation. I would bet good money that Roger Clemens comes back to pitch for the Astros after May 1, when they are allowed to negotiate with him again. They have one of the best closers in Brad Lidge, who seems to be have better staying power than Eric Gagne. The bullpen is a nameless bunch of guys who have been very effective in the past and should be a major asset again this year. Top to bottom, the Houston pitching staff is the cream of the crop in the National League.

The offense is young and serviceable. Anchoring the infield and the order will be first baseman Lance Berkman, with Jeff Bagwell presumably being forced to retire or not play because of his shoulder injuries and the insurance debacle. Craig Biggio will return to second base and the top of the order, and be very respectable, much more so than as a centerfielder. The Astros have acquired the much-traveled Preston Wilson to patrol the hill at Minute Maid Park, which cause me great indifference. Morgan Ensberg Willy Taveras and Jason Lane have a full year of experience including a World Series experience, which should make them stronger this year. Adam Everett and the veteran Brad Ausmus round out this lineup, which should keep them in the running, and if the Red Birds fall, the Astros should be able to step up and win the division.

However, the Astros have a tendency to get off to slow starts the past few years, and this could put them in a deep hole this year, since the rest of the division should be better than they were last year. I don’t think the Astros can assume they can go 20 or more games in September this year and expect to make the playoffs.

Chicago Cubs - To stick with a theme, the Cubs will go only as far s their starting pitchers will take them. Carlos Zambrano, Mark Prior, Kerry Wood (already projected to be on the DL to start the season), and Greg Maddux need to carry this team. When healthy (or younger in Maddux’s case) this group could be considered the best pitching top to bottom anywhere. However, the Cubs have essentially thrown caution to the wind and have thrown Prior and Wood into the ground, with both of the racking up significant arm injuries early in their career. Manager Dusty Baker has not shown any inclination that he is going to cut back on the innings he expects his starters to throw, so one might assume that Carlos Zambrano might be looking to break down this year. Jerome Williams, was picked up late last year and will be a very good 4th or 5th starter. Ryan Dempster is slated to close, with Bobby Howry waiting in the wings if and when Dempster goes into the Dumpster.

The little bears from the Windy City have done a very good job upgrading their offense in the off-season. They acquired Juan Pierre in the Florida fish fry and Jacque Jones via free agency. They are already committing to rookie Matt Murton in left field who tore up Double A, Triple A and the show. Todd Walker will face some competition at 2b with Jerry Hairston Jr, and I would presume a platoon would be the outcome here. Rookie shortstop Ronny Cedeno and veteran backstop Michael Barrett round out the defense.

The Cubbies should be very competitive and could press St. Louis and Houston for most of the season, and should finish above .500, but alas the streak of breaking curses will end this year as it will be at least another year until 1908 is erased from the minds of the second city south side.

Milwaukee Brewers – First, I want to congratulate the Brewers for finishing .500 last year. It was the first time the brew crew did not end a season with a losing record in 15 years. I hope they can build upon that. Even if they finish one game up, it would be a massive success for the folks in Richie Cunningham land. Second, I need to give the new management team, now that the Buddy Selig and his family no longer control the team, has begun to build what could be the best young team this year, and for years to come. This current group seems to have taken a page from John Hart, the General Manager of the Cleveland Indians from the early 1990’s, who signed young players to long-term contracts, before they were eligible for salary arbitration, so he could keep the core together for years to come. I think this is a great model to emulate, and it seems that is where the Brewers are going. However, this will be another growing year, but watch out next year and the following year.

Ben Sheets, who is returning from a back/shoulder injury, which will be a huge question mark on how he bounces back, lead the pitchers. He has already be withdrawn from the WBC, so it will be key to see how he does through the spring. Doug Davis, Chris Capuano, follows him in the rotation. David Bush acquired from the Blue Jays in the Lyle Overbay trade and Tomo Ohka round out the rotation. Derrick Turnbow returns to the closers role and Danny Kolb returns to Wisconsin after a disastrous season in Atlanta, where he can work his way back as the primary setup man, and ready to step in if Turnbow crashes and burns. The most important person in this whole mix is the under appreciated pitching coach, Mike Maddux. He has quietly built a very good staff, that is focusing on getting outs, which at the end of the day is the most important thing in baseball.

The offense is young, fast, powerful, and very well rounded. Brady Clark will be patrolling center, followed by Rickie Weeks. Prince Fielder assumes the throne at first, with Overbay gone, Carlos Lee, Geoff Jenkins and Corey Koskie provide strong bats in the middle of the order, and Damien Miller and JJ Hardy round out the bottom of the order. This team will be fun to watch, playing old time baseball, stealing bases, sacrificing, and hitting the long ball. Keep an eye out, this should be a fun ride.

Cincinnati Reds – This team does not seem to have a clue or a direction. The old GM was fired a few weeks before spring training and it was weeks before a Wayne Krivsky was hired. They seem to be going through the motions, but without actually producing any value or making the team any better in the process. I don’t know if this is a by-product of the Ken Griffey Jr contract, or just general ineptness. It is quite sad when you consider that this used to be the big Red Machine led by Sparky Anderson, with Johnny Bench, Tony Perez, Joe Morgan, Pete Rose, etc. It is shocking how far this once proud franchise has fallen. See the Kansas City Royals for a comparison.

Ken Griffey is back in centerfield until he blows out a hamstring, an ankle, a shoulder, or a thigh. It is a perfect example of an athlete not taking conditioning seriously as he gets older. When he was 19 he could do anything he wanted, but at 36, the body does not respond as fast as it once did, and it seems his off-season regiment does not include stretching. He apparently has not learned from work out hounds like Roger Clemens that the harder you push yourself in the off-season, the better you will be during the season. The rest of the outfield is Austin Kearns, Wily Mo Pena and Adam Dunn stationed at first this year. Tony Womak returns to second base after a shift to the Yankee outfield last year. Youngsters Edwin Encarncion and Felipe will hold down the left side of the infield and Jason LaRue will do the squatting behind the plate.

The pitching is led by the less than mediocre Aaron Harang, and followed by home run happy Eric Milton, Paul Wilson and Brandon Claussen. These last three should be familiar to New York baseball fans, since Milton and Claussen came through the Yankee system and Wilson was once an up and coming Met prospect. Now they are attempting to ply their trade on the Ohio River, enough said. The closer will be either Todd Coffey or the ugliest men ever to play the game in David Weathers, bottom line who cares. Nuff said. I only pick them ahead of the Pirates because they have more veterans, who will some proven experience in hitting the long ball. The Pirates could surprise many this season, as opposed to the Red who primarily have a roster of might have beens or never will be’s.

Pittsburgh Pirates - The Pirates seem to be in perpetual rebuilding mode, which is such a shame for one of the original 8 NL teams. It is said that this has occurred, and I will guarantee that we will not have a NFL and MLB champion from the same town this year.

The good news is Jason Bay is one of the best players in the league and no one has seen him play. Pitcher Zach Duke had a brilliant rookie campaign and hopefully could build upon that success. I hope the Pirates don’t become the Expos of the 1990’s, a team with a great farm system, which essentially acts as a farm club for the rest of the league. I hope they are able to keep and grow this talent, much as the Brewers are attempting to do this year.