St. Louis Cardinals – Tony LaRusso is either the best regular season manager ever or the worst playoff manager ever or both, I am not sure which. The Cardinals should again win the NL Central. They have a solid lineup, anchored by the reigning MVP Albert Pujols. The return of Scott Rolen at third who missed most of last year with a shoulder injury, should also bolster the lineup if he can retun to his 2004 form. Jim Edmonds can still track balls in centerfield like no one else, but his bat has slowed down as he aged. Juan Encarncion will patrol right in place of the retired Larry Walker, and Larry Bigbie is penciled into leftfield. David Eckstein and Junior Spivey will anchor the middle, and Yadir Molina will do the catching. It is a strong all around line-up that will score some runs, and play some solid defense.
Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder and Jeff Suppan lead the pitching staff. Carpenter is prone to break down as the year wears on, and Mulder has shown some wear and tear, like his former Oakland teammate, Tim Hudson. Jeff Suppan is a serviceable 3rd starter, who will do the job when the ball is put in his hands. Jason Marquis and the Aruba knighted Sir Sidney Ponson will make his NL debut this year. Being a 5th starter should allow Ponson to shine, since he does not have the stamina or fortitude to an ace. Jason Isringhausen will again close games down, and he too is starting to show his age, and has broken down too many times the past few years. I am seeing him move to middle relief at some point soon. Can Braden Looper pick up the reigns when Izzy goes down? That will be the key for the Red Birds this summer. LaRusso, will do a find job mixing and matching his bullpen, since that is one of his strengths, but anything less than a World Series championship (which is a long shot), should cost LaRusso his job this year, and maybe that of GM Walt Jockety as well. However, this team could also easily fall out of contention if age, injury and pitching wind up haunting this team.
Houston Astros – The best thing the Astros have going for them is their pitching. Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettite, and Brandon Backe are the top of the rotation. I would bet good money that Roger Clemens comes back to pitch for the Astros after May 1, when they are allowed to negotiate with him again. They have one of the best closers in Brad Lidge, who seems to be have better staying power than Eric Gagne. The bullpen is a nameless bunch of guys who have been very effective in the past and should be a major asset again this year. Top to bottom, the Houston pitching staff is the cream of the crop in the National League.
The offense is young and serviceable. Anchoring the infield and the order will be first baseman Lance Berkman, with Jeff Bagwell presumably being forced to retire or not play because of his shoulder injuries and the insurance debacle. Craig Biggio will return to second base and the top of the order, and be very respectable, much more so than as a centerfielder. The Astros have acquired the much-traveled Preston Wilson to patrol the hill at Minute Maid Park, which cause me great indifference. Morgan Ensberg Willy Taveras and Jason Lane have a full year of experience including a World Series experience, which should make them stronger this year. Adam Everett and the veteran Brad Ausmus round out this lineup, which should keep them in the running, and if the Red Birds fall, the Astros should be able to step up and win the division.
However, the Astros have a tendency to get off to slow starts the past few years, and this could put them in a deep hole this year, since the rest of the division should be better than they were last year. I don’t think the Astros can assume they can go 20 or more games in September this year and expect to make the playoffs.
Chicago Cubs - To stick with a theme, the Cubs will go only as far s their starting pitchers will take them. Carlos Zambrano, Mark Prior, Kerry Wood (already projected to be on the DL to start the season), and Greg Maddux need to carry this team. When healthy (or younger in Maddux’s case) this group could be considered the best pitching top to bottom anywhere. However, the Cubs have essentially thrown caution to the wind and have thrown Prior and Wood into the ground, with both of the racking up significant arm injuries early in their career. Manager Dusty Baker has not shown any inclination that he is going to cut back on the innings he expects his starters to throw, so one might assume that Carlos Zambrano might be looking to break down this year. Jerome Williams, was picked up late last year and will be a very good 4th or 5th starter. Ryan Dempster is slated to close, with Bobby Howry waiting in the wings if and when Dempster goes into the Dumpster.
The little bears from the Windy City have done a very good job upgrading their offense in the off-season. They acquired Juan Pierre in the Florida fish fry and Jacque Jones via free agency. They are already committing to rookie Matt Murton in left field who tore up Double A, Triple A and the show. Todd Walker will face some competition at 2b with Jerry Hairston Jr, and I would presume a platoon would be the outcome here. Rookie shortstop Ronny Cedeno and veteran backstop Michael Barrett round out the defense.
The Cubbies should be very competitive and could press St. Louis and Houston for most of the season, and should finish above .500, but alas the streak of breaking curses will end this year as it will be at least another year until 1908 is erased from the minds of the second city south side.
Milwaukee Brewers – First, I want to congratulate the Brewers for finishing .500 last year. It was the first time the brew crew did not end a season with a losing record in 15 years. I hope they can build upon that. Even if they finish one game up, it would be a massive success for the folks in Richie Cunningham land. Second, I need to give the new management team, now that the Buddy Selig and his family no longer control the team, has begun to build what could be the best young team this year, and for years to come. This current group seems to have taken a page from John Hart, the General Manager of the Cleveland Indians from the early 1990’s, who signed young players to long-term contracts, before they were eligible for salary arbitration, so he could keep the core together for years to come. I think this is a great model to emulate, and it seems that is where the Brewers are going. However, this will be another growing year, but watch out next year and the following year.
Ben Sheets, who is returning from a back/shoulder injury, which will be a huge question mark on how he bounces back, lead the pitchers. He has already be withdrawn from the WBC, so it will be key to see how he does through the spring. Doug Davis, Chris Capuano, follows him in the rotation. David Bush acquired from the Blue Jays in the Lyle Overbay trade and Tomo Ohka round out the rotation. Derrick Turnbow returns to the closers role and Danny Kolb returns to Wisconsin after a disastrous season in Atlanta, where he can work his way back as the primary setup man, and ready to step in if Turnbow crashes and burns. The most important person in this whole mix is the under appreciated pitching coach, Mike Maddux. He has quietly built a very good staff, that is focusing on getting outs, which at the end of the day is the most important thing in baseball.
The offense is young, fast, powerful, and very well rounded. Brady Clark will be patrolling center, followed by Rickie Weeks. Prince Fielder assumes the throne at first, with Overbay gone, Carlos Lee, Geoff Jenkins and Corey Koskie provide strong bats in the middle of the order, and Damien Miller and JJ Hardy round out the bottom of the order. This team will be fun to watch, playing old time baseball, stealing bases, sacrificing, and hitting the long ball. Keep an eye out, this should be a fun ride.
Cincinnati Reds – This team does not seem to have a clue or a direction. The old GM was fired a few weeks before spring training and it was weeks before a Wayne Krivsky was hired. They seem to be going through the motions, but without actually producing any value or making the team any better in the process. I don’t know if this is a by-product of the Ken Griffey Jr contract, or just general ineptness. It is quite sad when you consider that this used to be the big Red Machine led by Sparky Anderson, with Johnny Bench, Tony Perez, Joe Morgan, Pete Rose, etc. It is shocking how far this once proud franchise has fallen. See the Kansas City Royals for a comparison.
Ken Griffey is back in centerfield until he blows out a hamstring, an ankle, a shoulder, or a thigh. It is a perfect example of an athlete not taking conditioning seriously as he gets older. When he was 19 he could do anything he wanted, but at 36, the body does not respond as fast as it once did, and it seems his off-season regiment does not include stretching. He apparently has not learned from work out hounds like Roger Clemens that the harder you push yourself in the off-season, the better you will be during the season. The rest of the outfield is Austin Kearns, Wily Mo Pena and Adam Dunn stationed at first this year. Tony Womak returns to second base after a shift to the Yankee outfield last year. Youngsters Edwin Encarncion and Felipe will hold down the left side of the infield and Jason LaRue will do the squatting behind the plate.
The pitching is led by the less than mediocre Aaron Harang, and followed by home run happy Eric Milton, Paul Wilson and Brandon Claussen. These last three should be familiar to New York baseball fans, since Milton and Claussen came through the Yankee system and Wilson was once an up and coming Met prospect. Now they are attempting to ply their trade on the Ohio River, enough said. The closer will be either Todd Coffey or the ugliest men ever to play the game in David Weathers, bottom line who cares. Nuff said. I only pick them ahead of the Pirates because they have more veterans, who will some proven experience in hitting the long ball. The Pirates could surprise many this season, as opposed to the Red who primarily have a roster of might have beens or never will be’s.
Pittsburgh Pirates - The Pirates seem to be in perpetual rebuilding mode, which is such a shame for one of the original 8 NL teams. It is said that this has occurred, and I will guarantee that we will not have a NFL and MLB champion from the same town this year.
The good news is Jason Bay is one of the best players in the league and no one has seen him play. Pitcher Zach Duke had a brilliant rookie campaign and hopefully could build upon that success. I hope the Pirates don’t become the Expos of the 1990’s, a team with a great farm system, which essentially acts as a farm club for the rest of the league. I hope they are able to keep and grow this talent, much as the Brewers are attempting to do this year.
Sunday, February 26, 2006
Thursday, February 23, 2006
US Reclassifies Documents
Here is an article which a chronic malcontent send to me from the NY Times from Tuesday. The gist is that a slew of documents from the National Archive, which had been declassified have all of a sudden disappeared from the archive, because they have reclassified by the Bush administration.
This begs the question was this simply a mistake, or is this another example of the executive branch, attempting to thwart the legislative branch (FOIA) again? Let me know what you think.
This begs the question was this simply a mistake, or is this another example of the executive branch, attempting to thwart the legislative branch (FOIA) again? Let me know what you think.
US Ports and Arab Control
You know, I honestly have not been paying as much attention to this issue as I might have in the past few months, because I am honestly torn by this situation (and the fact I am really busy at work).
On one side, are the national security advocates are saying by allowing an Arab controlled company, from an Arab country (United Arab Emirates) to run six US East Coast ports, then we are making ourselves more susceptible to a terrorist attack. On the other side, is the capitalistic perspective that says by allowing the best economic entity run the ports ( ie. Invisible hand theory), then the ports can run more efficiently and profitably. These are both very valid points of view in this discussion. Finally, just to get my Bush bashing in, you have the 3rd perspective of those not in the know, which our illustrious president seems to find himself again (Harriet Meir, Katrina, VP shooting, etc.).
I am often butting heads with my father, whenever we discuss the Middle East, since he will state that Arabs are only interested in destruction and war, and it is impossible to negotiate or work civilly with them. I always point out that not all Arabs are like this, and if we (as a collective we, not my father and I) hope to ever bring peace to the Middle East then we cannot summarily dismiss all Arabs in this manner. I hope that we only see 20% of the extreme and the rest of the 80% of law-abiding, family loving folks like myself. I also have to admit in the wake of the recent cartoon-gate that the Arab world certainly does not try to change their image in the western world, they seem to lack a peace advocating leader, but that is another story altogether.
We need to be able to reward capitalistic endeavors that are driving commerce in the middle east. The point of this ramble is are we to assume the folks at Dubai Ports World are legitimate partners of the United States and don't have any interest in state sanctioned terrorism, or do we assume like my father, that all Arabs are inherently bad and we should not reward them economically for providing the best bid for this job since they will allow a free entry for terrorist into this country.
I assume (and I realize it is probably a very bad assumption) and hope that the State Department and the Department of Homeland Security is going to make this organization jump through multiple hoops, to verify who is working in the US at these ports, doing a thorough screening of all potential employees, both domestic and international to ensure that terrorists are being smoked out. The bottom line is if an American or European or Asian organization won the rights to manage these ports, would they be any more secure from terrorists than by having a middle eastern Arabian entity control the business operations? My guess is it would be exactly the same amount of security, since security is a function of the effort put into those that run the ports, not the countries that own the entity.
If we are concerned about terrorists attacking the ports, or using those areas as an entry point to this country, then DHS, INS, the Coast Guard and every other agency involved in the fight on terrorism ought to review existing procedures at every port in the US and set up new standards then strictly enforce those standards and ensure all organization running all the ports are strictly adhering to these standards, with massive fines and consequences for non-compliance. At the end of the day, security is only as good as the procedures, and those responsible for adhering and enforcing those procedures, and it does not matter the managers national origin. If you are committed to be secure, you will be secure. If you pay lip service, then you won't be secure. It is that simple.
The bottom line is we cannot have it both ways; punishing the Middle East because they are Arab or undemocratic or not Christian or whatever the beef is and then expect them to work with the western world to stabilize the region. So the answers seems to be let them run the ports, do everything within our power to ensure the security of these and all US ports and lets move onto the next issue.
On one side, are the national security advocates are saying by allowing an Arab controlled company, from an Arab country (United Arab Emirates) to run six US East Coast ports, then we are making ourselves more susceptible to a terrorist attack. On the other side, is the capitalistic perspective that says by allowing the best economic entity run the ports ( ie. Invisible hand theory), then the ports can run more efficiently and profitably. These are both very valid points of view in this discussion. Finally, just to get my Bush bashing in, you have the 3rd perspective of those not in the know, which our illustrious president seems to find himself again (Harriet Meir, Katrina, VP shooting, etc.).
I am often butting heads with my father, whenever we discuss the Middle East, since he will state that Arabs are only interested in destruction and war, and it is impossible to negotiate or work civilly with them. I always point out that not all Arabs are like this, and if we (as a collective we, not my father and I) hope to ever bring peace to the Middle East then we cannot summarily dismiss all Arabs in this manner. I hope that we only see 20% of the extreme and the rest of the 80% of law-abiding, family loving folks like myself. I also have to admit in the wake of the recent cartoon-gate that the Arab world certainly does not try to change their image in the western world, they seem to lack a peace advocating leader, but that is another story altogether.
We need to be able to reward capitalistic endeavors that are driving commerce in the middle east. The point of this ramble is are we to assume the folks at Dubai Ports World are legitimate partners of the United States and don't have any interest in state sanctioned terrorism, or do we assume like my father, that all Arabs are inherently bad and we should not reward them economically for providing the best bid for this job since they will allow a free entry for terrorist into this country.
I assume (and I realize it is probably a very bad assumption) and hope that the State Department and the Department of Homeland Security is going to make this organization jump through multiple hoops, to verify who is working in the US at these ports, doing a thorough screening of all potential employees, both domestic and international to ensure that terrorists are being smoked out. The bottom line is if an American or European or Asian organization won the rights to manage these ports, would they be any more secure from terrorists than by having a middle eastern Arabian entity control the business operations? My guess is it would be exactly the same amount of security, since security is a function of the effort put into those that run the ports, not the countries that own the entity.
If we are concerned about terrorists attacking the ports, or using those areas as an entry point to this country, then DHS, INS, the Coast Guard and every other agency involved in the fight on terrorism ought to review existing procedures at every port in the US and set up new standards then strictly enforce those standards and ensure all organization running all the ports are strictly adhering to these standards, with massive fines and consequences for non-compliance. At the end of the day, security is only as good as the procedures, and those responsible for adhering and enforcing those procedures, and it does not matter the managers national origin. If you are committed to be secure, you will be secure. If you pay lip service, then you won't be secure. It is that simple.
The bottom line is we cannot have it both ways; punishing the Middle East because they are Arab or undemocratic or not Christian or whatever the beef is and then expect them to work with the western world to stabilize the region. So the answers seems to be let them run the ports, do everything within our power to ensure the security of these and all US ports and lets move onto the next issue.
Wednesday, February 22, 2006
2006 NL East Predictions
2006 NL Predictions
As I stated in the AL Predictions, this year is a bit different because the World Baseball Classic could have a significant impact on the regular season, with an injury to a key player before the season starts. I know many folks will say that injuries can happen in spring training, which is true, but in theory the players will not be going all out in split-squad games in March, but will be defending the honor of their country. Players will try to reach for that extra push, and could wind up seriously hurting themselves, just watch out.
In addition, pitching depth will also be key for the NL. The team with the best pitching, should go deep into the playoffs, and may have the honor of losing in the World Series in October to the AL champion.
Finally, I will admit that I am more familiar with the AL teams than I am with these teams. However, I prefer the NL game to the AL game. I like the strategy associated with the NL, it is the thinking man’s league. There is no station-to-station baseball, waiting for the long ball. It is the home of the double switch, and fast paced games. It has the pitchers batters, and no lineup stacked from one to nine with .300 hitters. Stolen bases and sacrifices still matter in the NL. It is how baseball is supposed to be played and obviously the best fact of all no DH!
Atlanta Braves - This is to me is probably the hardest division to call this season. I have for the past 3 years predicted another team, usually the Phillies, would win this division. Somehow, the Braves have continued to win for 14 straight years. I know some of those were when they were in the NL West, but lets not lose sight that is quite impressive run. In order to break the streak, and prove my ineptitude, I am going to pick them win the division this year, which probably means the streak will end.
The offense still has some solid veterans in the Jones brothers, Chipper and Andruw, Marcus Giles, and the recently acquired Edgar Renteria. They also have probably the best crop of young players able to compete at the major league level. They include Adam LaRoche, Brian McCann, Jeff Francoeur and Ryan Langerhaus. This group was essentially given on the job training and won the division last year in spite of the rookie-infested lineup. There is no reason to believe this offense will not help carry them most of the way this year. Chipper Jones is a year older, and will probably spend some time on the disabled list again this year. Andruw Jones should be able to build on his near MVP season last year, as he matures. We forget he was a 19-year-old rookie in 1996, when he played in the World Series against the Yankees. Otherwise, this team should excel in a mediocre division. The pitching is going to be interesting. Gone from their run is pitching coach, Leo Mazzone, who led the Braves staff for years. It will be interesting to see how former Met Roger McDowell does this bunch. They have John Smoltz and Tim Hudson anchoring the rotation. Smoltz did a great job of moving back into the starting rotation, after closing the past few years. He was solid and remains a top option, but he is a year older. Tim Hudson seems to be a question mark having thrown many innings in his career, and is beginning to break down. If he is healthy, then he can be one of the best pitchers in the league. John Thomson, Jorge Sosa, and Horatio Ramirez round out the starting rotation. The bullpen however remains a huge question mark. Chris Reitsma is currently penciled in as the closer, but that can easily change if he implodes from the pressure. Atlanta has had multiple closers (John Rocker, Mark Wohlers, Mike Stanton, John Smoltz, Kerry Lightenberg, etc.) during their run, so this does not seem to be a large concern. The relief corps is young, and should be an ample bridge. This should be the real test of manager Bobby Cox’s ability, but I have to go with history, which is usually a mistake.
New York Mets – The Mets made the biggest splash during the off-season, by making moves and improving at the direct expense of its divisional rivals. They benefited from the Marlins fire sale, by picking up Carlos Delgado and Paul Loduca. They outbid the Phillies for the services of Billy Wagner, one of the premiere closers in the league. This makes the Mets an offensive force to be reckoned with this year. They have Jose Reyes, David Wright, Cliff Floyd and Carlos Beltran returning. I hope that the pressure will be off Beltran having a year in New York under his belt and Delgado batting behind him will make him better than he was last year. The rest of the lineup includes a platoon of Xavier Nady and Victor Diaz in RF and Kax Matsui and Brett Boone fighting it out for 2b. If Boone can regain his old form, not the shell of the player he was last year or if Matsui shows half the spark he allegedly had in Japan, then the Mets will be as solid up and down as almost any other NL team
Shea Stadium remains a pitchers park, but their two horses are a year older. Pedro Martinez is already battling a sore toe from last year, and wants to play in the WBC for the Dominican Republic. Tom Glavine is no longer the stud he used to be when he played in Atlanta, but he is still a quality pitcher, who can eat up innings, but relying on him to be the #2 starter is asking a lot. The rest of the rotation is the average Steve Trachsel, the below average Victor Zambrano, and the young Aaron Heilman. They also brought Jose Lima in for spring training, but short of an injury, I don’t see him being much of a factor. They might regret trading Jae Seo and Kris Benson if Pedro or Glavine break down during the season. The closer is solid with Wagner. The problem again for the Mets is going to be getting from the starter to Wagner. Manager Willie Randolph will probably be making a lot of trips ot the mound in the middle innings, working match-ups and trying to maximize the weakest unit of this team.
Philadelphia Phillies – I have been optimistic for this team since Jim Thome signed there a few years ago. Well, now Thome is gone, giving NL Rookie sensation Ryan Howard first base to himself. He can go into spring training, without having to look over his shoulder and worry about being traded in July. He will be on the right side of the infield with Chase Utley, the other rookie stud from last year. Pair them up with Jimmy Rollins at short and David Bell at third and you have one of the best combined infields in the league. Bobby Abreau in right, Pat Burrell in left anchor the outfield and the new centerfielder is Aaron Rowand, who they got in the Thome trade, giving them a real lead off hitter this year. Offensive prowess will not be a problem for this team.
The ace of this team is the former Yankee Jon Lieber, who is a solid pitcher, but not a classic ace. The rest of the staff is very young, and has a lot of maturing. Luckily Brett Myers, Cory Lidle, Ryan Madson, Ryan Franklin or Gavin Floyd, will get 38 games against the Nationals and the Marlins, so the Phillies should win about half their games. I used to say that Larry Bowa was a terrible manager, but they have done no better under Charlie Manual, and if they meet my predictions this year then Ed Wade, the General Manager should be fired at the end of the season, if not sooner since he has not done anything in his time there to justify keeping him.
Washington Nationals – How bad do you need to be for Sammy Sosa to retire rather than playing for you? How bad is that the big off-season acquisition, Alfonso Soriano, is already demanding another trade since he does not want to leave second base, where they already have Jose Vidro? Nick Johnson is a stud in the making, and the definition of injury prone player. He is always on the verge of breaking out, then breaking down. The aforementioned Jose Vidro is also starting to break down. Cristan Guzman was the worst signing ever last year, and the Nats are stuck with him again this year. Ryan Zimmerman should be refreshing at third base, but I would see him exiting stage left in a few years when he becomes a free agent. The outfield is a bunch of journeyman and the volatile Jose Guillen, who is one spark away from blowing his top.
The ageless Livian Hernandez is a solid starter who can throw a ton of innings. John Patterson, Ramon Ortiz, Brian Lawrence and Tony Armas Jr round out this below average rotation. I always like Lawrence when he was in San Diego, but I am guessing Kevin Towers, the Padres GM, was not impressed which is why he let him go. Chad Cordero has been very good at getting saves and should rack up a fair number again this year. The rest of the bullpen is a collection of young and old, with one similar attribute, they all come cheap. It is a shame, since this team will not be able to compete until they are owned by someone other than MLB, and Her Commandant Selig refuses to sell the team until he has finished fleecing the residents of Washington DC for a new stadium and other concessions, that will set the new owners up on easy street. What a way to start off in a new city, by pissing off the fan base. But that is another story.
Florida Marlins – This team can be summed up easily: Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis and 23 other chumps. That is not completely fair, since I think Mike Jacobs, who the fish picked up in the Carlos Delgado trade, should be decent if he can learn some plate discipline, perhaps becoming a poor man’s Adam Dunn. Jeremy Hermida also showed some potential last year, and should continue to grow this year. Hopefully, the can keep this core together for a few years, and compete towards the end of the decade.
As I stated in the AL Predictions, this year is a bit different because the World Baseball Classic could have a significant impact on the regular season, with an injury to a key player before the season starts. I know many folks will say that injuries can happen in spring training, which is true, but in theory the players will not be going all out in split-squad games in March, but will be defending the honor of their country. Players will try to reach for that extra push, and could wind up seriously hurting themselves, just watch out.
In addition, pitching depth will also be key for the NL. The team with the best pitching, should go deep into the playoffs, and may have the honor of losing in the World Series in October to the AL champion.
Finally, I will admit that I am more familiar with the AL teams than I am with these teams. However, I prefer the NL game to the AL game. I like the strategy associated with the NL, it is the thinking man’s league. There is no station-to-station baseball, waiting for the long ball. It is the home of the double switch, and fast paced games. It has the pitchers batters, and no lineup stacked from one to nine with .300 hitters. Stolen bases and sacrifices still matter in the NL. It is how baseball is supposed to be played and obviously the best fact of all no DH!
Atlanta Braves - This is to me is probably the hardest division to call this season. I have for the past 3 years predicted another team, usually the Phillies, would win this division. Somehow, the Braves have continued to win for 14 straight years. I know some of those were when they were in the NL West, but lets not lose sight that is quite impressive run. In order to break the streak, and prove my ineptitude, I am going to pick them win the division this year, which probably means the streak will end.
The offense still has some solid veterans in the Jones brothers, Chipper and Andruw, Marcus Giles, and the recently acquired Edgar Renteria. They also have probably the best crop of young players able to compete at the major league level. They include Adam LaRoche, Brian McCann, Jeff Francoeur and Ryan Langerhaus. This group was essentially given on the job training and won the division last year in spite of the rookie-infested lineup. There is no reason to believe this offense will not help carry them most of the way this year. Chipper Jones is a year older, and will probably spend some time on the disabled list again this year. Andruw Jones should be able to build on his near MVP season last year, as he matures. We forget he was a 19-year-old rookie in 1996, when he played in the World Series against the Yankees. Otherwise, this team should excel in a mediocre division. The pitching is going to be interesting. Gone from their run is pitching coach, Leo Mazzone, who led the Braves staff for years. It will be interesting to see how former Met Roger McDowell does this bunch. They have John Smoltz and Tim Hudson anchoring the rotation. Smoltz did a great job of moving back into the starting rotation, after closing the past few years. He was solid and remains a top option, but he is a year older. Tim Hudson seems to be a question mark having thrown many innings in his career, and is beginning to break down. If he is healthy, then he can be one of the best pitchers in the league. John Thomson, Jorge Sosa, and Horatio Ramirez round out the starting rotation. The bullpen however remains a huge question mark. Chris Reitsma is currently penciled in as the closer, but that can easily change if he implodes from the pressure. Atlanta has had multiple closers (John Rocker, Mark Wohlers, Mike Stanton, John Smoltz, Kerry Lightenberg, etc.) during their run, so this does not seem to be a large concern. The relief corps is young, and should be an ample bridge. This should be the real test of manager Bobby Cox’s ability, but I have to go with history, which is usually a mistake.
New York Mets – The Mets made the biggest splash during the off-season, by making moves and improving at the direct expense of its divisional rivals. They benefited from the Marlins fire sale, by picking up Carlos Delgado and Paul Loduca. They outbid the Phillies for the services of Billy Wagner, one of the premiere closers in the league. This makes the Mets an offensive force to be reckoned with this year. They have Jose Reyes, David Wright, Cliff Floyd and Carlos Beltran returning. I hope that the pressure will be off Beltran having a year in New York under his belt and Delgado batting behind him will make him better than he was last year. The rest of the lineup includes a platoon of Xavier Nady and Victor Diaz in RF and Kax Matsui and Brett Boone fighting it out for 2b. If Boone can regain his old form, not the shell of the player he was last year or if Matsui shows half the spark he allegedly had in Japan, then the Mets will be as solid up and down as almost any other NL team
Shea Stadium remains a pitchers park, but their two horses are a year older. Pedro Martinez is already battling a sore toe from last year, and wants to play in the WBC for the Dominican Republic. Tom Glavine is no longer the stud he used to be when he played in Atlanta, but he is still a quality pitcher, who can eat up innings, but relying on him to be the #2 starter is asking a lot. The rest of the rotation is the average Steve Trachsel, the below average Victor Zambrano, and the young Aaron Heilman. They also brought Jose Lima in for spring training, but short of an injury, I don’t see him being much of a factor. They might regret trading Jae Seo and Kris Benson if Pedro or Glavine break down during the season. The closer is solid with Wagner. The problem again for the Mets is going to be getting from the starter to Wagner. Manager Willie Randolph will probably be making a lot of trips ot the mound in the middle innings, working match-ups and trying to maximize the weakest unit of this team.
Philadelphia Phillies – I have been optimistic for this team since Jim Thome signed there a few years ago. Well, now Thome is gone, giving NL Rookie sensation Ryan Howard first base to himself. He can go into spring training, without having to look over his shoulder and worry about being traded in July. He will be on the right side of the infield with Chase Utley, the other rookie stud from last year. Pair them up with Jimmy Rollins at short and David Bell at third and you have one of the best combined infields in the league. Bobby Abreau in right, Pat Burrell in left anchor the outfield and the new centerfielder is Aaron Rowand, who they got in the Thome trade, giving them a real lead off hitter this year. Offensive prowess will not be a problem for this team.
The ace of this team is the former Yankee Jon Lieber, who is a solid pitcher, but not a classic ace. The rest of the staff is very young, and has a lot of maturing. Luckily Brett Myers, Cory Lidle, Ryan Madson, Ryan Franklin or Gavin Floyd, will get 38 games against the Nationals and the Marlins, so the Phillies should win about half their games. I used to say that Larry Bowa was a terrible manager, but they have done no better under Charlie Manual, and if they meet my predictions this year then Ed Wade, the General Manager should be fired at the end of the season, if not sooner since he has not done anything in his time there to justify keeping him.
Washington Nationals – How bad do you need to be for Sammy Sosa to retire rather than playing for you? How bad is that the big off-season acquisition, Alfonso Soriano, is already demanding another trade since he does not want to leave second base, where they already have Jose Vidro? Nick Johnson is a stud in the making, and the definition of injury prone player. He is always on the verge of breaking out, then breaking down. The aforementioned Jose Vidro is also starting to break down. Cristan Guzman was the worst signing ever last year, and the Nats are stuck with him again this year. Ryan Zimmerman should be refreshing at third base, but I would see him exiting stage left in a few years when he becomes a free agent. The outfield is a bunch of journeyman and the volatile Jose Guillen, who is one spark away from blowing his top.
The ageless Livian Hernandez is a solid starter who can throw a ton of innings. John Patterson, Ramon Ortiz, Brian Lawrence and Tony Armas Jr round out this below average rotation. I always like Lawrence when he was in San Diego, but I am guessing Kevin Towers, the Padres GM, was not impressed which is why he let him go. Chad Cordero has been very good at getting saves and should rack up a fair number again this year. The rest of the bullpen is a collection of young and old, with one similar attribute, they all come cheap. It is a shame, since this team will not be able to compete until they are owned by someone other than MLB, and Her Commandant Selig refuses to sell the team until he has finished fleecing the residents of Washington DC for a new stadium and other concessions, that will set the new owners up on easy street. What a way to start off in a new city, by pissing off the fan base. But that is another story.
Florida Marlins – This team can be summed up easily: Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis and 23 other chumps. That is not completely fair, since I think Mike Jacobs, who the fish picked up in the Carlos Delgado trade, should be decent if he can learn some plate discipline, perhaps becoming a poor man’s Adam Dunn. Jeremy Hermida also showed some potential last year, and should continue to grow this year. Hopefully, the can keep this core together for a few years, and compete towards the end of the decade.
Friday, February 17, 2006
Response from Senator Lieberman on NSA
Dear Mr. Herz:
Thank you for contacting me to express your views regarding President Bush's actions allowing the National Security Agency (NSA) to eavesdrop on Americans in the United States communicating with people overseas. I welcome the opportunity to respond.
NSA does not normally engage in domestic spying, and, like all other agencies, is required to obtain a warrant before conducting such electronic surveillance of American citizens. I am very troubled by news of this type of surveillance by NSA, of American citizens without a court order, particularly when there is an existing law -- the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) -- that creates a procedure for receiving a court order under a variety of scenarios.
I do not believe that President Bush has the authority to authorize NSA to eavesdrop on Americans without a warrant, or without following the current FISA law. Additionally, I believe that FISA requires the President to go to the secret FISA court in those instances. According to court records, the FISA court has only turned down a small amount of requests out of about 20,000, since its creation in 1978. I do believe our government should have the power to tap phone conversations and e-mails between people who may have something to do with al Qaeda, but I also believe our government should have to at least go through one level of clearance, such as the FISA court, to obtain a warrant either before it engages in such surveillance or shortly thereafter.
I strongly support Senator Arlen Specter's (R-PA) decision to hold hearings in the Senate Judiciary Committee to investigate this serious matter, which he convened in February 2006. I hope the House of Representatives does the same.
Please be assured that I will continue my strong commitment to maintaining the balance between the crucial need for tools to fight the war on terror and the equally important need of providing a judicial check on such surveillance authority.
My official Senate web site is designed to be an on-line office that provides access to constituent services, Connecticut-specific information, and an abundance of information about what I am working on in the Senate on behalf of Connecticut and the nation. I am also pleased to let you know that I have launched an email news update service through my web site. You can sign up for that service by visiting http://lieberman.senate.gov and clicking on the "Subscribe Email News Updates" button at the bottom of the home page. I hope these are informative and useful.
Thank you again for letting me know your views and concerns. Please contact me if you have any additional questions or comments about our work in Congress.
Sincerely,
Joseph I. Lieberman
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Thank you for contacting me to express your views regarding President Bush's actions allowing the National Security Agency (NSA) to eavesdrop on Americans in the United States communicating with people overseas. I welcome the opportunity to respond.
NSA does not normally engage in domestic spying, and, like all other agencies, is required to obtain a warrant before conducting such electronic surveillance of American citizens. I am very troubled by news of this type of surveillance by NSA, of American citizens without a court order, particularly when there is an existing law -- the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) -- that creates a procedure for receiving a court order under a variety of scenarios.
I do not believe that President Bush has the authority to authorize NSA to eavesdrop on Americans without a warrant, or without following the current FISA law. Additionally, I believe that FISA requires the President to go to the secret FISA court in those instances. According to court records, the FISA court has only turned down a small amount of requests out of about 20,000, since its creation in 1978. I do believe our government should have the power to tap phone conversations and e-mails between people who may have something to do with al Qaeda, but I also believe our government should have to at least go through one level of clearance, such as the FISA court, to obtain a warrant either before it engages in such surveillance or shortly thereafter.
I strongly support Senator Arlen Specter's (R-PA) decision to hold hearings in the Senate Judiciary Committee to investigate this serious matter, which he convened in February 2006. I hope the House of Representatives does the same.
Please be assured that I will continue my strong commitment to maintaining the balance between the crucial need for tools to fight the war on terror and the equally important need of providing a judicial check on such surveillance authority.
My official Senate web site is designed to be an on-line office that provides access to constituent services, Connecticut-specific information, and an abundance of information about what I am working on in the Senate on behalf of Connecticut and the nation. I am also pleased to let you know that I have launched an email news update service through my web site. You can sign up for that service by visiting http://lieberman.senate.gov and clicking on the "Subscribe Email News Updates" button at the bottom of the home page. I hope these are informative and useful.
Thank you again for letting me know your views and concerns. Please contact me if you have any additional questions or comments about our work in Congress.
Sincerely,
Joseph I. Lieberman
UNITED STATES SENATOR
I wonder if the terrorists know this?
Skype use may make eavesdropping passe - USA Today (Thanks David)
Does anyone else find it so unbelievable that the Republicans in the Senate, refuse to investigate the NSA wiretaps? It is as if they are willing to put the party ahead ofthee country. They are also in effect limiting their own power, since the constitution explicitly gives congress the right to limit or expand executive power. Eventually, their will be no need for Congress.
I hope the government does not go after the USA today for aiding and abetting the enemy, since this is essentially telling them how to avoid being detected.Skype, the Internet calling service recently acquired by eBay, provides free voice calls and instant messaging between users. Unlike other Internet voice services, Skype calls are encrypted — encoded using complex mathematical operations. That apparently makes them impossible to snoop on, though the company leaves the issue somewhat open to question.
Skype is certainly not the first application for encrypted communications on the Internet. Secure e-mail and instant messaging programs have been available for years at little or no cost.
But to a large extent, Internet users haven't felt a need for privacy that outweighed the extra effort needed to use encryption. In particular, e-mail programs such as Pretty Good Privacy have been considered too cumbersome by many.
And because such applications have had limited popularity, their mere use can draw attention. With Skype, however, criminals, terrorists and other people who really want to keep their communications private are indistinguishable from those who just want to call their mothers....
Does anyone else find it so unbelievable that the Republicans in the Senate, refuse to investigate the NSA wiretaps? It is as if they are willing to put the party ahead ofthee country. They are also in effect limiting their own power, since the constitution explicitly gives congress the right to limit or expand executive power. Eventually, their will be no need for Congress.
Thursday, February 16, 2006
Today is a great day!!
Today is a great day!!
Today is the first day of the new baseball season when Pitchers and Catchers report. It is almost like the you can feel the winter coming to an end (in spite of a massive snow storm last weekend) and a warm breeze blowing in your face. It is the smell in the air, and the pop as a ball hits a mitt.
Pitchers and Catchers reporting has a magically sound to the ears. Like birds singing this morning in the back yard, since they too must know that spring is almost sprung. All teams start today with an equal chance, a clean record, last year removed from memory, and just like spring itself, they are ready to bloom anew.
Everything is fresh and clean, with no scent of scandal. No steroids, no contraction, no fire-sales, no more salary arbitration. The winter olympics are being played in Italy, and it doesn't matter. Pitchers and Catchers report today and everything is going to be alright again since baseball is now back.
Today is a great day!!
Today is the first day of the new baseball season when Pitchers and Catchers report. It is almost like the you can feel the winter coming to an end (in spite of a massive snow storm last weekend) and a warm breeze blowing in your face. It is the smell in the air, and the pop as a ball hits a mitt.
Pitchers and Catchers reporting has a magically sound to the ears. Like birds singing this morning in the back yard, since they too must know that spring is almost sprung. All teams start today with an equal chance, a clean record, last year removed from memory, and just like spring itself, they are ready to bloom anew.
Everything is fresh and clean, with no scent of scandal. No steroids, no contraction, no fire-sales, no more salary arbitration. The winter olympics are being played in Italy, and it doesn't matter. Pitchers and Catchers report today and everything is going to be alright again since baseball is now back.
Today is a great day!!
Wednesday, February 15, 2006
Eliminating Internet Passwords
This week at the RSA Security conference, in the keynote address, Microsoft head geek, Bill Gates told the attendees that internet passwords need to be eliminated and replaced with a trust ecosystem.
I know as a consumer, I am not just going to hand over access to all my personal information, without a serious committment from the vendor that my account and information is being seriously protected by all entities involved in the process. I know that many companies will subcontract much of this work out. Where I might trust my bank, how do I know I can trust every large and small vendor working with the banks IT group, ensuring their privacy policies are being adhered too? I personally am not going to trust my ISP or my OS, to talk to my bank, to talk to Ebay, to talk to Amazon, etc.
This pie-in-the-sky utopian goal of no internet passwords also does not consider market competition. Under this solution Microsoft is going to be able to present me consolidated financial statements, since it will possess my authentication standards for all my various accounts. How easy will it become for Citibank, Wachovia, or JP Morgan, etc, to know what assets I have with their competitors. They might become recipients of competitive information, which they could potentially use to influence the market.
Needless to say, I am very skeptical about the technology, and the implementation of this solution. Although there is value in improving the user experience at individual websites through Identity management,(Single Sign-on, Federated ID Management, etc.), I don't want those credentials following me to the next site. But that is just me.
Now, I realize that Gates role as MS Chief Software Architecht is to push the envelope and capabilities of the technology market, but this concept of a password-less internet is way more than 3-4 years away. I am not sure the capabilities to build this trust can exist in that time frame, and if they are successful how are consumers and vendors going to buy into this model?Gates said trust ecosystems exist in the physical world, where those who break the trust can suffer a damaged reputation or be convicted of a crime. He said the concept must be extended to the Internet through more trustworthy code and devices, and outlined steps the software giant is taking to get there.
"Passwords are the weak link," Gates told his audience. "We need to move in the direction of smart cards, and multi-factor authentication must be built into the system itself. We need the ability to track what goes on and have a built-in recovery system."
He said the goal is to move beyond passwords in three to four years.
I know as a consumer, I am not just going to hand over access to all my personal information, without a serious committment from the vendor that my account and information is being seriously protected by all entities involved in the process. I know that many companies will subcontract much of this work out. Where I might trust my bank, how do I know I can trust every large and small vendor working with the banks IT group, ensuring their privacy policies are being adhered too? I personally am not going to trust my ISP or my OS, to talk to my bank, to talk to Ebay, to talk to Amazon, etc.
This pie-in-the-sky utopian goal of no internet passwords also does not consider market competition. Under this solution Microsoft is going to be able to present me consolidated financial statements, since it will possess my authentication standards for all my various accounts. How easy will it become for Citibank, Wachovia, or JP Morgan, etc, to know what assets I have with their competitors. They might become recipients of competitive information, which they could potentially use to influence the market.
Needless to say, I am very skeptical about the technology, and the implementation of this solution. Although there is value in improving the user experience at individual websites through Identity management,(Single Sign-on, Federated ID Management, etc.), I don't want those credentials following me to the next site. But that is just me.
Cheney Shoots 3 Presidents in Oval Office Mishap
Some hysterical silliness from Steve Martin:
Vice President Dick Cheney, while hunting wild geese in the Rose Garden, accidentally shot President Bush twice, once in the heart and once in the head. "I didn't really shoot the President twice," said Cheney. "The second time I shot him, I was president. It wasn't until my third shot, where I accidentally shot my own foot, that I had shot the president twice.
I was officially injured and unable to govern, when Dennis Hastert came in, and stepped on the butt handle of the rifle causing it to swing up like a rake and shoot his hair off. I guess I'm officially responsible for that too, meaning I shot the acting president for a total of three occupants of the oval office. I'm not proud, but it is a record."
RFID Implants for Commercial Purposes
According to the Chicago Tribune, there is an Ohio security company that has implanted radio frequency identification (RFID) chips into the arms of its employees. A scanner from about a foot away can read these chips, to validate the person and allow the doors to the office to open for that individual. All the employees say the volunteered to have the chip implanted.
It really does not seem to be a major invasion of individual privacy for this if there is a valid reason for the chips, such as a security precaution, that the chip is voluntary, that the chip can only be read from about a foot away, and that the government is not involved in this process. All of these criteria seem to fit this, so privacy advocates should just calm down and take a chill pill. This technology obviously is going to have larger ramifications down the line, if we start embracing RFID's as the Mexicans and Europeans have:
The U.S. seems a little behind in embracing the technology. Workers at the organized-crime division of Mexico's attorney general in Mexico City, for example, wear the chips to try to maintain top security.
So do about 2,000 patrons of nightclubs in Barcelona, Spain, and Rotterdam, Netherlands. The chips allow them to avoid long waits in lines and to run tabs at the clubs, which are owned by the same firm. Waiters scan the chips and a computer automatically draws the amount due from their checking accounts.
I personally don't think I would subscribe to be branding like an animal, just to get into the top nightclubs, and have my credit card charged automatically. This seems a little more creepy, rather than a simple invasion of privacy. And leave it to those wacky Spanish and Dutch (who used to share a monarch) to utilize this technology in such a innovative way.
Tuesday, February 14, 2006
Open Letter to Paul Hackett
Paul Hackett, an Iraqi War Veteran, was attempting to run for US Senate in Ohio, as a dark-horse, outside the envelope candidate, whose primary platform was bring the boys home. Today, he succumbed to Democratic Party pressure and bowed out of the race. Gary Hart even criticized his own party over abandoning this candidate.
Dear Mr. Hackett,
I was disappointed to hear today that you pulled out of the race for the United States Senator in Ohio. It is more troubling, that you were asked (forced) to withdraw from the race, by the leaders of the Democratic National Party. It seems the days of back room political horse trading is still alive and well. They are obviously still stuck in the old ways and unable or unwilling to embrace change and new individuals with new ideals, and now the entire country will be weaker because of this.
I would like to commend you on our efforts, having raised awareness to your candidacy, obtaining a national following, and building a grass roots foundation for your campaign. It is a sad commentary that this country had only two political parties, and you have been asked to step aside for another candidate that is more qualified. I doubt the founding fathers intended for our country to be run in this manner.
I would like to point out and question a statement you made on your press release today, when you withdrew from the race. You request to "remember that we must retool our party". I unfortunately must disagree with you. It seems the Democratic Party and its current leadership is beyond retooling, and is only interested in the status quo. In order to win back our country, the people need a national leader to step up and say this is unacceptable. This country is of the people, and for the people, not for the incumbent career politician, and both parties have lost sight of this ideal. I would therefore request that you not withdraw from the public spotlight, but rather help develop a new political party, that will address the needs to the middle of America, not the extremes where the current parties prefer to play.
I would like to wish you well in your future endeavors, but don't be in such a hurry to leave the public spotlight. I believe the American people need a leader to step up and ask the tough questions. Good luck in your future endeavors.
Sincerely,
Jeffrey Herz
Telling Paul Hackett that he cannot run for the Senate, and purportedly calling contributors to dry up his funds, is the worse kind of old politics. It will drive voters away from the supposedly "open" party, the Democrats, and further add to public cynicism about how politics in America is played in the early 21st century.Once I heard about this outrageous actions of the democratic party, I sent Mr. Hackett the following message via his website :
Dear Mr. Hackett,
I was disappointed to hear today that you pulled out of the race for the United States Senator in Ohio. It is more troubling, that you were asked (forced) to withdraw from the race, by the leaders of the Democratic National Party. It seems the days of back room political horse trading is still alive and well. They are obviously still stuck in the old ways and unable or unwilling to embrace change and new individuals with new ideals, and now the entire country will be weaker because of this.
I would like to commend you on our efforts, having raised awareness to your candidacy, obtaining a national following, and building a grass roots foundation for your campaign. It is a sad commentary that this country had only two political parties, and you have been asked to step aside for another candidate that is more qualified. I doubt the founding fathers intended for our country to be run in this manner.
I would like to point out and question a statement you made on your press release today, when you withdrew from the race. You request to "remember that we must retool our party". I unfortunately must disagree with you. It seems the Democratic Party and its current leadership is beyond retooling, and is only interested in the status quo. In order to win back our country, the people need a national leader to step up and say this is unacceptable. This country is of the people, and for the people, not for the incumbent career politician, and both parties have lost sight of this ideal. I would therefore request that you not withdraw from the public spotlight, but rather help develop a new political party, that will address the needs to the middle of America, not the extremes where the current parties prefer to play.
I would like to wish you well in your future endeavors, but don't be in such a hurry to leave the public spotlight. I believe the American people need a leader to step up and ask the tough questions. Good luck in your future endeavors.
Sincerely,
Jeffrey Herz
Was Cheny Drunk?
Great question posed by the Lawrence O'Donnell at The Huffington Post
I am just sitting back and enjoying watch Mr. Cheney squirm for a change. I actually kind of enjoy coming up with my own version of the back story here. There is some disagreement between the big Dick and Mr. Whittington on policy, or Harry says something that really gets the the Veep pissed off. Cheney then turns to his other in the party, and says "Watch me go Aaron Burr on his ass. I bet he shits his pants he will be so surprised."The L.A. Times is edging closer to the most likely reason for the 18 hour delay in reporting that the Vice President of the United States shot someone:
How do we know there was no alcohol? Cheney refused to talk to local authorities until the next day. No point in giving him a breathalyzer then. Every lawyer I've talked to assumes Cheney was too drunk to talk to the cops after the shooting. The next question for the White House should be: Was Cheney drunk?
"This was a hunting accident," said Gilbert San Miguel, chief deputy of the Kenedy County Sheriff's Office. "There was no alcohol or misconduct."
I have never gone hunting with ultra-rich Republicans on a Saturday afternoon, but I have seen them tailgating at Ivy League football games, so it's hard for me to believe that any of their Saturday lunches are alcohol free.
Saturday, February 11, 2006
2006 AL Predictions
So it is early February 2006, pitchers and catchers are due to report on the 16th. It is time to make my annual (usually poor) predictions for the upcoming season.
First, this year is going to be a bit different during the spring because of the World Baseball Classic (WBC). This even sponsored by MLB and sanctioned by the Players Union, is essentially throwing players into game time situations a month earlier than normal, and they will be excepted to perform for their country, while getting paid nothing. I believe this is going to be a big exhibition, think All-Star spread out over a month, where the largest concern will be which player is seriously injured and thus this injury has a large impact upon his team’s regular season performance. This tournament should be played in November or December. Then the players not on a playoff team would be able to train, work out together in October, and be more prepared to play with no limits or caveats. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
Second, there is going to be a recurring them in my preview that starting pitching is considered a premium and the majority of the teams lack quality and/or depth in this area. All of the playoff caliber teams and some of the fringe teams only have a few quality proven starters that will be responsible for carrying their teams throughout the stopper. The player they will look to stop a two, three or four game losing streak. I only see last year’s World Series participants, Chicago White Sox and Houston Astro’s, having significant and quality depth at the starting pitcher position. So let’s go:
AL EAST
NY Yankees – (being a biased Yankee fan), I still think the Yankees are the team to beat in the East. They don’t seem to have improved much, but they also have not moved back. They have upgraded with Johnny Damon in CF, replacing the aging Bernie Williams, who will take over the primary DH role, and bat off the bench. Damon brings stability to the top of the order, that the Bombers have not had since Chuck Knoblaugh and his erratic throwing problems went away in 2000. Damon’s arrival allows SS Derek Jeter to move back to the #2 hole, and 3b Alex Rodriguez 3rd in the batting order. This seems to play to both of their strengths. Although Jeter might be a better lead-off hitter than Damon, his strengths and ability to move runners, hit to the other field and willingness to sacrifice his production for the teams, makes the Captain better suited for batting 2nd. With reigning MVP A-Rod hitting between Jeter and some combination of RF Gary Sheffield, LF Hideki Matsui, and/or 1b Jason Giambi, he should continue to pound the ball. The middle of the order is older, and probably more susceptible to injury but should have no problem scoring runs. It is going to be difficult to find anyone to pitch around in the top 6 of the order. Rounding out the bottom of the order, the Yankees will send out an aging C Jorge Posada, a past his prime DH Bernie Williams and the young phenom from last year 2b Robinson Cano. Unfortunately is this where rallies will go to die, and I am guessing that a mid-season acquisition will come to relieve Williams of day-to-day responsibility and put Giambi squarely on the bench as the primary DH.
The 2006 Yankees will go only as far as the pitching of Mike Mussina and Randy Johnson take them. These two are considered the jewels of the staff, and need to step up and take responsibility for this team, especially under the guidance of first time pitching coach Ron Guidry. Johnson has a lot of explaining to do (with his left arm) after that stinker of Game 3 in the divisional playoffs last year and other than that gutsy performance by Mussina in Game 6 of the 2003 ALCS, I have been overall unimpressed with Moose in pinstripes. If they fail to deliver this year, then they both should be considered NY failures. Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright were essentially useless and/or injured last year, providing virtually no value whatsoever. I would not be surprised if one of these two (probably Pavano) is sent packing via a trade before the teams head north in March. The rest of the over crowded staff is rounded out by the real saviors of the 2005 team, Shawn Chacon, Aaron Small and Ching-Ming Wang. They all deserve a shot in the rotation, but Small will probably start in the pen as a long reliever, which limits the value that he was able to provide to the team last year. It seems seniority and larger contracts will prevail, and that could prove to be a mistake as the year wears on, and might be an Achilles heal.
The bullpen is anchored by the almost untouchable Mariano Rivera. Against the rest of Major League Baseball, Mo remains the best that ever played, but a combination of times seen, a great lineup, and ultimately aging, he remains suspect against their largest AL East rivals, the Boston Red Sox. During the regular season he will be fine, but I don’t think he should pitch in 70+ and be asked to save 40+ games this year. The Yankees have completely rebuilt their bridge to Rivera bringing in a slew of solid middle relievers. These include former closers Octavio Dotel and Kyle Farnsworth and career setup players Ron Villone and Mike Myers, plus the return of Tanyon Sturtze. Some how this group is going to need to bring the Yankees from the 5th inning through the 8th without allowing too much damage to get to Rivera. This could pose to be their largest problem, but as the saying goes, every team has this same situation. I am not sure what it is about middle relievers and why they excel one year and not the next, and in one location but not their new surroundings. All and all it is a very strange situation, which someone should try to figure out before another mult-million dollar contract is spent on a run of the mill middle reliever, but that is another story.
Boston Red Sox – I am not sure what to make of their off-season moves, both on the field and off. The Theo Epstein thing was just strange, how he left the organization on Halloween in a gorilla suit to avoid the media, then slinks back in January after no one apparently wanted the job. I just wonder if this disarray will have an effect on the field as the season progresses. The players are saying the right thing about supporting Theo and glad that he is back, but having seen some of the most disorganized front offices with the Yankees in the 1980’s and 1990’s just makes me wonder. However, it does seem that Epstein ultimately has gotten his way, by not holding onto the stars of 2004, and has attempted to recast the BoSox as a more athletic and younger team, with a stronger sense of defense ingrained into the organization. If nothing else, this team is built to play beyond the 2006 season, something that may not be said about their rivals in the Bronx. So let’s take a look:
The Mark Loretta trade is an absolute steal. They traded a Doug Mirabelli (who was knuckleball pitcher Tim Wakefield’s private catcher), to the Padres for one of the best all around 2b. It seems to me Boston took SD to the cleaners. The Red Sox also won in the Marlins fire sale, which could be collusion since the Red Sox owners, used to be the owners of the Marlins, but that is another issue. Coming to Boston is Yankee beater SP Josh Beckett, former Yankee 3b Mike Lowell and Guillermo Mota, who was traded to Cleveland for CF Coco Crisp. Returning from last year is captain C Jason Variteck, LF Manny Ramirez, RF Trot Nixon, DH David (Big Papi) Ortiz and 1b Kevin Youkalis who will share the job with free agent acquisition JT Snow. Lowell is coming off two down years, and one has to wonder can be bounce back in the AL. Crisp has never played exclusively in CF, and poses a defensive risk in the expansive Fenway Park. I think they have succeeded in making the team younger and somewhat more defensive. The offensive numbers will probably lag behind past years, but they should win sufficient games depending on the Manny Ramirez situation. Manny began the off-season requesting a trade. The Red Sox front office says they have been trying to move him, but it is difficult to find a team, that is willing to part with enough players and/or money to justify the Red Sox moving his bat to another team. They are currently in talks with the Anaheim Angels of Los Angeles California, West Coast, United States of America. It is worth keeping an eye on to see how Manny responds, because if he is “Manny” and oblivious ot the situation then the Red Sox will be fine, but if he sulks, ala Randy Johnson with the Mariners in 1998, then the Boston fans could be in for a long season.
As with the Yankees, the Red Sox pitching staff currently lacks sufficient and proven depth. Curt Schilling will be back to anchor this staff, but having had significant ankle problems in 2004 and 2005, makes me question his durability. David Wells is still with the team, though he has requested a trade to a West Coast team, I am guessing this will happen during spring training, when teams see Boomer can still throw. Even if he is not traded, his weight, his health and his attitude will be a problem for whatever team he ultimately plays. He is good to great when he is motivated, but only mediocre to average, when not pushed. Beckett, the 2003 World Series MVP, is only seven games over .500 for his career and has a history of blister problems. Pitchers moving from the NL to the AL, often have a hard time adjusting so it could be a long season for him. The rotation is rounded out by Matt Clement, Tim Wakefield and the rookie Jonathon Papelbon. The closer is the inconsistent Keith Foulke and the rest of the relief core, Mike Timlin, David Riske, Bronson Arroyo, Rudy Saeanez, and Julian Tavarez are very serviceable and probably as good as any other middle relievers. The weak link in the bullpen is still Foulke, and if he falters, will Craig Hanson be ready for the big time this year? I think they will still be strong enough to hold off the hard charging Blue Jays, and what should be the vastly improved Orioles.
Toronto Blue Jays - I am impressed by what the Blue Jays have done this off-season, but unfortunately, it won’t be enough to conquer both the Yankees and the Red Sox. If either team above them falters the Jays could slip into 2nd place finish and possibly a wild card, which would be a huge accomplishment for them, but it probably is not going to happen this year. They brought two pitchers SP AJ Burnett and Closer BJ Ryan north of border, to bring a major upgrade at both areas. Joining Burnett will be former CY Young winner Roy Halladay, former Yankee Ted Lilly, Gustavo Chacin and Josh Towers. The relief corps is young and maturing, and should prove to be a good bridge to Ryan, and his entire 42 career saves with 36 coming last year for the Orioles. It seems the Blue Jays have risked everything on one endeavor, hoping that Ryan is not a one-year wonder, but a solid long term closer. I hope for their sake that he pans out.
The offense is a bit lopsided right now with 4 players able to play 1b/3b/dh. Lyle Overbay, Troy Glaus and SHea Hillenbrand are currently slotted into those three positions with Eric Hinske being the odd man out, who could possibly be traded before spring training is over. What is also odd is that the 2b/ss pairing Aaron Hill and Russ Adams, have just one year experience and are being asked to hold down the center of the infield. It is a lot to ask of you players. The OF is solid with CF Vernon Wells anchoring LF Reed Johnson and RF Alexis Rios, who hopefully after a terrible sophomore campaign is ready to live up to his elite status. They are a young team, who have spent some money to improve their team and should be fun to watch for a few years to come.
Baltimore Orioles – The Orioles biggest acquisition might have come off the field this season. Manager Sam Perlozzo, was able to convince his old friend and best man at his wedding, Leo Mazzone to come and be his pitching coach. Mazzone who was the Atlanta Braves pitching coach, through their amazing 14 year run of divisional championship who helped guide Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Steve Avery, Mark Wohlers, and many others to pitching greatness in Georgia. Can he bring that same magic to Maryland with Rodrigo Lopez, Kris Benson, Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera and Bruce Chen? It would certainly add credibility to his hall of fame credentials, as the best non-managing coach of the past quarter century.
The Orioles offense made more waves regarding trade requests than anything else this winter. Both SS Miguel Tejeda and C/1b/DH Javy Lopez requested to be traded, because the team was not doing enough to be competitive in the AL East, and quite frankly I need to agree with them. They acquired Corey Patterson, Keith Millar and Jeff Coninie who all come with different negative luggage or age concerns. The pitching is atrocious, with no clear leader. I always had hoped that Kris Benson would amount to more than a .500 pitcher that he had been with the Pirates and the Mets, and maybe he can be in the AL. Bruce Chen has bounced (8 teams) around more than any 29 year old that I am aware. Leo Mazzone certainly has his job cut out for him with this team.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays - Anything you read about the Rays says they will be competitive in 2008 and beyond. They are rebuilding again for the 3rd (?) time in 8 seasons. Some have proposed allowing some teams like the Devil Rays to float between divisions to give them a chance to be competitive, since it is difficult to gain traction when you plan the Yankees and Red Sox 19 times each season. IN order to start making money, they need to win, and in order to win they need to start making money. It is a touch situation for the Rays, and one that is not going to be solved in 2006, as the Rays wind up in the AL East Basement again this year.
AL Central
Chicago White Sox – I have to give the White Sox the credit they deserve for winning last year and bringing the first baseball championship to Chicago since 1917. They won the old fashion way, with solid pitching, smart base running, timely hitting and strong defense. They were a team similar to the Yankees in the late 1990’s no superstar or one dimensional player which distracted from the team, just a group of players working together under a young and energetic manager, Ozzie Guillen, who gelled at the right time to win the whole thing. Why am I dwelling on the past, when this is supposed to be a preview for this season? Well, the White Sox have kept the core from last year, and seemingly improved. They have to be the odds on favorite to repeat. They have the most pitching depth, and a solid offense. It is on paper, a great combination. If you look at the past few champions they are one hit wonders. The Red Sox imploded on Curt Schillings ankle and a different team now (see above). The Marlins had a fire sale this off-season after just missing another wild card slot last year. The Angles continue to compete, but are unable to get that mojo (or stupid rally monkey) back they had in 2002 and the Diamondbacks are back in the crapper. None of those teams was built for longevity. I think the White Sox could be a force to reckon with for a few years to come.
The infied remains in tact with AJ Pierzynski behind the dish, 1b Paul Konerko, 2b Tag Iguchi, SS Juan Uribe and 3b Joe Crede. Scott Podsednik will continue to patrol left and swipe bases, Jermaine Dye is the modern day David Justic in Right, he just keeps winding up on playoff teams. Brian Anderson takes over in Center from Aaron Rowand who was traded to Philadelphia which brought Jim Thome to the second city. Thome had many injury problems during his stay in Philly, and Ryan Howard was ready to take over at 1b. The most telling thing about this team, was after this trade, Thome got on the phone and called Paul Konerko, his fellow first baseman and pleaded with him to resign in Chicago. How often to you have a player who has been just traded to that team call a free agent who happens to play the same position (yes I know Thome will ultimately DH, but that is not the point)? Almost never, but that is what happened that brought Konerko back to the Windy City to share 1B/DH with Thome. That is teamwork, and it should be commended.
IF it is possible, the White Sox pitching is going to be better this year than last. They lost El Duque Orlando Hernandez to the Diamondbacks, but in return, they got Javier Vazquez, who is an excellent pitcher and not being asked to be the ace in this rotation. Although he struggled in the second half of his one year in New York, he is an inning horse that throws many strikeouts and will fit well into a rotation that includes Mark Buehrle, Freddy Garcia, Jose Contreas, Jon Garland and the up and coming Brandon McCarthy. What Guillen did was the bullpen and the closer role last year was masterful and should be emulated by budget conscious teams around the league. By mid-summer, he was using a closer by committee approach, which I have panned in the past that worked out quite successfully. He would bring on the best pitcher for the situation they were currently facing in the game. For instance if he was facing a tough situation in the 7th inning, then he would bring in the person who had earned the last four saves, in this non-save situation. This philosophy allows the White Sox payroll flexibility, since they don’t have to shell outrageous amounts of money for player to pitch one inning or less.
Cleveland Indians - The Indians made an impressive run at the White Sox at the end of last season, with a young and talented team that they can parlay that run into a strong start to the season. They have a young nucleus and seem to be using the model they employed in the late 1980’s to sign young players to long term contracts. This worked for them then as they were the kings of the AL Central in the mid-1990’s with Thome, Baerga, Vizquel, Ramirez and Lofton. The Chicago Cleveland rivalry could become the next Yankee/Red Sox or Cubs/Cardinals over the next few years. The Indians have a stong lineup with a lot of power in DH Travis Hafner, C Victor Martinez, 1b Ben Broussard, and young SS Jhonny Peralta. The outfield is fast with Jason Michael, Grady Sizemore and Casey Blake. Aaron Boone brings experience on the hot corner.
The starting pitching is solid with Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, Paul Byrd, Jake Westbrook, and Jason Johnson. Though this is a young staff, they will mature into a solid core if Cleveland can keep them together. The bullpen is fine with Bob Wickman acting as the very heavy anchor. Although Wickman is injury prone, when he is healthy, he is probably the most under rated closer in the business and that again can only help the Indians. They should be in the wildcard chase right until the end of the season and could actually sneak into the playoffs.
Minnesota Twins – The Twins probably have the best battery combination, Johan Santana and Joe Mauer, in all of baseball. They have the human highlight reel in Centerfielder Torii Hunter. They have the best bullpen and one of the best closers, Joe Nathan, in baseball. In spite of all this, the Twins will be lucky to finish 3rd in this division. They are lucky that the Tigers and Royals play in the same division and are terrible. It seems that their talented farm system and unwillingness to spend money to sign players because of their knucklehead cheap owner, Carl Pohland, has finally caught up with this once powerful and proud franchise.
Detroit Tigers – Dysfunctional is the best way to describe this franchise. They fired Alan Trammel at the end of last season, even though he was a hometown hero and was supposed to be the person to see the team through these growing pains, even though they lost 119, 90 and 91 under his tenure. The Tigers went and hired Jim Leyland out of retirement who readily admitted that he did not even know half the players on his roster. I know Leyland was successful in the past, and Jack McKeon’s success in Florida in 2003 might have sparked Detroit management to reach deep for Leyland. However, is he really a rebuilding type, who is ready to lose 80-90 games again this season? I don’t know who the candidates were, but a younger managerial candidate probably deserved this job, rather than a recycled manager.
Kansas City Royals – I am not sure that KC is any better than their Triple-A affiliate in Omaha, who finished 4th out of 8 in their Pacific Coast League Division. The uninspiring Buddy Bell leads this young team in battle, and there seem to be no indications that this year’s version will be any better or different from the past few years, where they have lost 100 or more three out of the past four seasons. Mike Sweeney returns, to become the subject of trade rumors come July. Mike MacDougal overcame arm and control problems to regain the closers role, and if he remains consistent could become trade bait as well. It almost seems as if the Royals have become like the KC Athletics in the 60’s, a farm team for the rest of the league, where its players are not retained or traded to the upper echelon to become superstars elsewhere. Where have you gone George Brett?
AL WEST
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, California West Coast, Pacific Time Zone, USA – The Angels remain the cream of the crop in the west, though I can never be sure what there actual franchise name is going to be. I think with NHL’s Anaheim Mighty Ducks dropping the Mighty part of their name, maybe the Angels should become the LA Mighty Angels, but again this is another story. The Angels remain the team to beat primarily because the Oakland Athletics keep trying to convince us that Moneyball is the way to go, and prefers to spend time and effort on analytics and won’t pony up the cash for quality players, and Seattle and Texas are projected to be not good.
The starting pitching is good, but not great across the board. They have one large starting pitcher in Bartolo Colon, one young in John Lackey, a converted closer in Kelvim Escobar, one sophomore in Ervin Santana, and one journeyman with 6 career starts in Henry Carrasco. They have a top notch closer in Francisco Rodriguez and a bullpen that is second only to the Twins. I think this team is going to have tough time outside their division with this pitching, and I see many high scoring affairs, which is going to put an even heavier burden on the bullpen.
The offense is going to score many runs with RF Vlad Guerrero, 3b Chone Figgins, LF Garratt Anderson, and CF Darin Erstad. Casey Kotchman gets the nod at 1b, and Dallas MacPherson still needs to be proving he can play at the major league level. If this team is able to acquire Manny Ramirez from the Red Sox, then there will be no stopping this juggernaut until October, when they will most assuredly crash and burn in the playoffs.
Oakland Athletics – The one thing the A’s have going for them is they probably have the best starting pitching west of Chicago. They are led by former CY Young winner Barry Zito, along with the homegrown Rich Harden, Danny Haren, Joe Blanton and imported free agent Esteban Loaiza. I am concerned because Harden, Haren and Blanton are all young, with a ton of potential. It just begs the question are we looking at another case of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, where the Cubs just threw those young arms right into the ground, and now neither of them have been injury free for the past two or three seasons. Manager Ken Macha, needs to make sure he does not blow out an elbow or a shoulder on these young guns. This makes the Athletics almost the Anti-Angels in that they have pitching but virtually no hitting.
The A’s offense will be led this year by the acquisition of the Frank “Big Hurt” Thomas, whose nickname used to be about his bat and now it refers to his body. Thomas will be the DH, and will be surrounded with a bunch of up and coming players like SS Bobby Crosby, 1b Dan Johnson, LF Nick Swisher and experience Veterans like 3b Eric Chavez, CF Mark Kotsay, C Jason Kendall and notorious hothead RF Milton Bradley. This team will be competitive but will fall out of contention in August, after the trading deadline. If they get off slow start then look for them to put some of their pitchers on the trading block.
Seattle Mariners – I put the Mariners above the Rangers only because one of these teams needs to finish in 3rd and one needs to be in 4th. I question the wisdom of bringing in a catcher who speaks neither English nor Spanish, the primary language of 95% of the pitchers in the major leagues, but that is exactly what the Mariners did this year by signing Kenji Johjima. The players that have come to the United States from Japan have been generally very good and I am sure that Johjima is also a good suspicious catcher, and a decent hitter, at least that is the scouting report. However, how is he going to communicate with his pitchers, and control a ball game as a catcher is supposed to if he cannot even speak the same language. The appeal of a Japanese player in the Pacific Northwest probably makes sense from a marketing perspective; I am just not convinced this move makes sense in a competitive sense. I hope I am proven wrong and he excels and the Seattle pitching staff raves about working with this guy, but paint me red with skepticism.
The other big story out of Seattle this year will be the continued development of Felix Hernandez, the best 19 year old to play in the major leagues since Dwight Gooden in 1984. I hope that he continues to flash brilliance and give the hope for the M’s in the years to come. Otherwise it is just watching 90 year Jamie Moyer, an injury prone Joel Pineiro, and retreads Gil Meche and Jarrod Washburn. Their closer is “Everyday” Eddie Guardado, who really isn’t everyday anymore, since he is often injured. The bullpen is below average, with only JJ Putz standing out, because his last name is Yiddish for penis.
The offense is nothing to write home about with Ichiro looking to collect 200 hits again and get back on track this year, after an off year in 2005. Adrian Beltre seems to be a hit year wonder, (his contract year with the Dodgers), and shows no signs his old bat is going to return anytime soon. Jeremy Reed was the most coveted CF this off-season after Johnny Damon, which makes absolutely no sense. Reed hit .254/3/45 with 15 stolen bases. I don’t know why everyone is raving about him, but it seems reasonable he will be traded by the All-Star break.
Texas Rangers – Tom Hicks has done nothing with this franchise since he flushed ¼ billion dollars down the drain when he signed Alex Rodriguez in 2001. This years team will have a number of big boppers with 1b Mark Texiera, 3b Hank Blalock and SS Michael Young. The outfield is average with Brad Wilkerson, the jewel of the Alfonso Soriano trade with the Nationals, David Dellucci and Kevin Mench. The pitching seems to be starting from scratch with Kevin Millwood, Adam Eaton and Vincente Padilla all making their Ranger debuts this season. They have a good to great closer in Francisco Cordero, but won’t have many opportunities to use him.
First, this year is going to be a bit different during the spring because of the World Baseball Classic (WBC). This even sponsored by MLB and sanctioned by the Players Union, is essentially throwing players into game time situations a month earlier than normal, and they will be excepted to perform for their country, while getting paid nothing. I believe this is going to be a big exhibition, think All-Star spread out over a month, where the largest concern will be which player is seriously injured and thus this injury has a large impact upon his team’s regular season performance. This tournament should be played in November or December. Then the players not on a playoff team would be able to train, work out together in October, and be more prepared to play with no limits or caveats. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
Second, there is going to be a recurring them in my preview that starting pitching is considered a premium and the majority of the teams lack quality and/or depth in this area. All of the playoff caliber teams and some of the fringe teams only have a few quality proven starters that will be responsible for carrying their teams throughout the stopper. The player they will look to stop a two, three or four game losing streak. I only see last year’s World Series participants, Chicago White Sox and Houston Astro’s, having significant and quality depth at the starting pitcher position. So let’s go:
AL EAST
NY Yankees – (being a biased Yankee fan), I still think the Yankees are the team to beat in the East. They don’t seem to have improved much, but they also have not moved back. They have upgraded with Johnny Damon in CF, replacing the aging Bernie Williams, who will take over the primary DH role, and bat off the bench. Damon brings stability to the top of the order, that the Bombers have not had since Chuck Knoblaugh and his erratic throwing problems went away in 2000. Damon’s arrival allows SS Derek Jeter to move back to the #2 hole, and 3b Alex Rodriguez 3rd in the batting order. This seems to play to both of their strengths. Although Jeter might be a better lead-off hitter than Damon, his strengths and ability to move runners, hit to the other field and willingness to sacrifice his production for the teams, makes the Captain better suited for batting 2nd. With reigning MVP A-Rod hitting between Jeter and some combination of RF Gary Sheffield, LF Hideki Matsui, and/or 1b Jason Giambi, he should continue to pound the ball. The middle of the order is older, and probably more susceptible to injury but should have no problem scoring runs. It is going to be difficult to find anyone to pitch around in the top 6 of the order. Rounding out the bottom of the order, the Yankees will send out an aging C Jorge Posada, a past his prime DH Bernie Williams and the young phenom from last year 2b Robinson Cano. Unfortunately is this where rallies will go to die, and I am guessing that a mid-season acquisition will come to relieve Williams of day-to-day responsibility and put Giambi squarely on the bench as the primary DH.
The 2006 Yankees will go only as far as the pitching of Mike Mussina and Randy Johnson take them. These two are considered the jewels of the staff, and need to step up and take responsibility for this team, especially under the guidance of first time pitching coach Ron Guidry. Johnson has a lot of explaining to do (with his left arm) after that stinker of Game 3 in the divisional playoffs last year and other than that gutsy performance by Mussina in Game 6 of the 2003 ALCS, I have been overall unimpressed with Moose in pinstripes. If they fail to deliver this year, then they both should be considered NY failures. Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright were essentially useless and/or injured last year, providing virtually no value whatsoever. I would not be surprised if one of these two (probably Pavano) is sent packing via a trade before the teams head north in March. The rest of the over crowded staff is rounded out by the real saviors of the 2005 team, Shawn Chacon, Aaron Small and Ching-Ming Wang. They all deserve a shot in the rotation, but Small will probably start in the pen as a long reliever, which limits the value that he was able to provide to the team last year. It seems seniority and larger contracts will prevail, and that could prove to be a mistake as the year wears on, and might be an Achilles heal.
The bullpen is anchored by the almost untouchable Mariano Rivera. Against the rest of Major League Baseball, Mo remains the best that ever played, but a combination of times seen, a great lineup, and ultimately aging, he remains suspect against their largest AL East rivals, the Boston Red Sox. During the regular season he will be fine, but I don’t think he should pitch in 70+ and be asked to save 40+ games this year. The Yankees have completely rebuilt their bridge to Rivera bringing in a slew of solid middle relievers. These include former closers Octavio Dotel and Kyle Farnsworth and career setup players Ron Villone and Mike Myers, plus the return of Tanyon Sturtze. Some how this group is going to need to bring the Yankees from the 5th inning through the 8th without allowing too much damage to get to Rivera. This could pose to be their largest problem, but as the saying goes, every team has this same situation. I am not sure what it is about middle relievers and why they excel one year and not the next, and in one location but not their new surroundings. All and all it is a very strange situation, which someone should try to figure out before another mult-million dollar contract is spent on a run of the mill middle reliever, but that is another story.
Boston Red Sox – I am not sure what to make of their off-season moves, both on the field and off. The Theo Epstein thing was just strange, how he left the organization on Halloween in a gorilla suit to avoid the media, then slinks back in January after no one apparently wanted the job. I just wonder if this disarray will have an effect on the field as the season progresses. The players are saying the right thing about supporting Theo and glad that he is back, but having seen some of the most disorganized front offices with the Yankees in the 1980’s and 1990’s just makes me wonder. However, it does seem that Epstein ultimately has gotten his way, by not holding onto the stars of 2004, and has attempted to recast the BoSox as a more athletic and younger team, with a stronger sense of defense ingrained into the organization. If nothing else, this team is built to play beyond the 2006 season, something that may not be said about their rivals in the Bronx. So let’s take a look:
The Mark Loretta trade is an absolute steal. They traded a Doug Mirabelli (who was knuckleball pitcher Tim Wakefield’s private catcher), to the Padres for one of the best all around 2b. It seems to me Boston took SD to the cleaners. The Red Sox also won in the Marlins fire sale, which could be collusion since the Red Sox owners, used to be the owners of the Marlins, but that is another issue. Coming to Boston is Yankee beater SP Josh Beckett, former Yankee 3b Mike Lowell and Guillermo Mota, who was traded to Cleveland for CF Coco Crisp. Returning from last year is captain C Jason Variteck, LF Manny Ramirez, RF Trot Nixon, DH David (Big Papi) Ortiz and 1b Kevin Youkalis who will share the job with free agent acquisition JT Snow. Lowell is coming off two down years, and one has to wonder can be bounce back in the AL. Crisp has never played exclusively in CF, and poses a defensive risk in the expansive Fenway Park. I think they have succeeded in making the team younger and somewhat more defensive. The offensive numbers will probably lag behind past years, but they should win sufficient games depending on the Manny Ramirez situation. Manny began the off-season requesting a trade. The Red Sox front office says they have been trying to move him, but it is difficult to find a team, that is willing to part with enough players and/or money to justify the Red Sox moving his bat to another team. They are currently in talks with the Anaheim Angels of Los Angeles California, West Coast, United States of America. It is worth keeping an eye on to see how Manny responds, because if he is “Manny” and oblivious ot the situation then the Red Sox will be fine, but if he sulks, ala Randy Johnson with the Mariners in 1998, then the Boston fans could be in for a long season.
As with the Yankees, the Red Sox pitching staff currently lacks sufficient and proven depth. Curt Schilling will be back to anchor this staff, but having had significant ankle problems in 2004 and 2005, makes me question his durability. David Wells is still with the team, though he has requested a trade to a West Coast team, I am guessing this will happen during spring training, when teams see Boomer can still throw. Even if he is not traded, his weight, his health and his attitude will be a problem for whatever team he ultimately plays. He is good to great when he is motivated, but only mediocre to average, when not pushed. Beckett, the 2003 World Series MVP, is only seven games over .500 for his career and has a history of blister problems. Pitchers moving from the NL to the AL, often have a hard time adjusting so it could be a long season for him. The rotation is rounded out by Matt Clement, Tim Wakefield and the rookie Jonathon Papelbon. The closer is the inconsistent Keith Foulke and the rest of the relief core, Mike Timlin, David Riske, Bronson Arroyo, Rudy Saeanez, and Julian Tavarez are very serviceable and probably as good as any other middle relievers. The weak link in the bullpen is still Foulke, and if he falters, will Craig Hanson be ready for the big time this year? I think they will still be strong enough to hold off the hard charging Blue Jays, and what should be the vastly improved Orioles.
Toronto Blue Jays - I am impressed by what the Blue Jays have done this off-season, but unfortunately, it won’t be enough to conquer both the Yankees and the Red Sox. If either team above them falters the Jays could slip into 2nd place finish and possibly a wild card, which would be a huge accomplishment for them, but it probably is not going to happen this year. They brought two pitchers SP AJ Burnett and Closer BJ Ryan north of border, to bring a major upgrade at both areas. Joining Burnett will be former CY Young winner Roy Halladay, former Yankee Ted Lilly, Gustavo Chacin and Josh Towers. The relief corps is young and maturing, and should prove to be a good bridge to Ryan, and his entire 42 career saves with 36 coming last year for the Orioles. It seems the Blue Jays have risked everything on one endeavor, hoping that Ryan is not a one-year wonder, but a solid long term closer. I hope for their sake that he pans out.
The offense is a bit lopsided right now with 4 players able to play 1b/3b/dh. Lyle Overbay, Troy Glaus and SHea Hillenbrand are currently slotted into those three positions with Eric Hinske being the odd man out, who could possibly be traded before spring training is over. What is also odd is that the 2b/ss pairing Aaron Hill and Russ Adams, have just one year experience and are being asked to hold down the center of the infield. It is a lot to ask of you players. The OF is solid with CF Vernon Wells anchoring LF Reed Johnson and RF Alexis Rios, who hopefully after a terrible sophomore campaign is ready to live up to his elite status. They are a young team, who have spent some money to improve their team and should be fun to watch for a few years to come.
Baltimore Orioles – The Orioles biggest acquisition might have come off the field this season. Manager Sam Perlozzo, was able to convince his old friend and best man at his wedding, Leo Mazzone to come and be his pitching coach. Mazzone who was the Atlanta Braves pitching coach, through their amazing 14 year run of divisional championship who helped guide Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Steve Avery, Mark Wohlers, and many others to pitching greatness in Georgia. Can he bring that same magic to Maryland with Rodrigo Lopez, Kris Benson, Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera and Bruce Chen? It would certainly add credibility to his hall of fame credentials, as the best non-managing coach of the past quarter century.
The Orioles offense made more waves regarding trade requests than anything else this winter. Both SS Miguel Tejeda and C/1b/DH Javy Lopez requested to be traded, because the team was not doing enough to be competitive in the AL East, and quite frankly I need to agree with them. They acquired Corey Patterson, Keith Millar and Jeff Coninie who all come with different negative luggage or age concerns. The pitching is atrocious, with no clear leader. I always had hoped that Kris Benson would amount to more than a .500 pitcher that he had been with the Pirates and the Mets, and maybe he can be in the AL. Bruce Chen has bounced (8 teams) around more than any 29 year old that I am aware. Leo Mazzone certainly has his job cut out for him with this team.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays - Anything you read about the Rays says they will be competitive in 2008 and beyond. They are rebuilding again for the 3rd (?) time in 8 seasons. Some have proposed allowing some teams like the Devil Rays to float between divisions to give them a chance to be competitive, since it is difficult to gain traction when you plan the Yankees and Red Sox 19 times each season. IN order to start making money, they need to win, and in order to win they need to start making money. It is a touch situation for the Rays, and one that is not going to be solved in 2006, as the Rays wind up in the AL East Basement again this year.
AL Central
Chicago White Sox – I have to give the White Sox the credit they deserve for winning last year and bringing the first baseball championship to Chicago since 1917. They won the old fashion way, with solid pitching, smart base running, timely hitting and strong defense. They were a team similar to the Yankees in the late 1990’s no superstar or one dimensional player which distracted from the team, just a group of players working together under a young and energetic manager, Ozzie Guillen, who gelled at the right time to win the whole thing. Why am I dwelling on the past, when this is supposed to be a preview for this season? Well, the White Sox have kept the core from last year, and seemingly improved. They have to be the odds on favorite to repeat. They have the most pitching depth, and a solid offense. It is on paper, a great combination. If you look at the past few champions they are one hit wonders. The Red Sox imploded on Curt Schillings ankle and a different team now (see above). The Marlins had a fire sale this off-season after just missing another wild card slot last year. The Angles continue to compete, but are unable to get that mojo (or stupid rally monkey) back they had in 2002 and the Diamondbacks are back in the crapper. None of those teams was built for longevity. I think the White Sox could be a force to reckon with for a few years to come.
The infied remains in tact with AJ Pierzynski behind the dish, 1b Paul Konerko, 2b Tag Iguchi, SS Juan Uribe and 3b Joe Crede. Scott Podsednik will continue to patrol left and swipe bases, Jermaine Dye is the modern day David Justic in Right, he just keeps winding up on playoff teams. Brian Anderson takes over in Center from Aaron Rowand who was traded to Philadelphia which brought Jim Thome to the second city. Thome had many injury problems during his stay in Philly, and Ryan Howard was ready to take over at 1b. The most telling thing about this team, was after this trade, Thome got on the phone and called Paul Konerko, his fellow first baseman and pleaded with him to resign in Chicago. How often to you have a player who has been just traded to that team call a free agent who happens to play the same position (yes I know Thome will ultimately DH, but that is not the point)? Almost never, but that is what happened that brought Konerko back to the Windy City to share 1B/DH with Thome. That is teamwork, and it should be commended.
IF it is possible, the White Sox pitching is going to be better this year than last. They lost El Duque Orlando Hernandez to the Diamondbacks, but in return, they got Javier Vazquez, who is an excellent pitcher and not being asked to be the ace in this rotation. Although he struggled in the second half of his one year in New York, he is an inning horse that throws many strikeouts and will fit well into a rotation that includes Mark Buehrle, Freddy Garcia, Jose Contreas, Jon Garland and the up and coming Brandon McCarthy. What Guillen did was the bullpen and the closer role last year was masterful and should be emulated by budget conscious teams around the league. By mid-summer, he was using a closer by committee approach, which I have panned in the past that worked out quite successfully. He would bring on the best pitcher for the situation they were currently facing in the game. For instance if he was facing a tough situation in the 7th inning, then he would bring in the person who had earned the last four saves, in this non-save situation. This philosophy allows the White Sox payroll flexibility, since they don’t have to shell outrageous amounts of money for player to pitch one inning or less.
Cleveland Indians - The Indians made an impressive run at the White Sox at the end of last season, with a young and talented team that they can parlay that run into a strong start to the season. They have a young nucleus and seem to be using the model they employed in the late 1980’s to sign young players to long term contracts. This worked for them then as they were the kings of the AL Central in the mid-1990’s with Thome, Baerga, Vizquel, Ramirez and Lofton. The Chicago Cleveland rivalry could become the next Yankee/Red Sox or Cubs/Cardinals over the next few years. The Indians have a stong lineup with a lot of power in DH Travis Hafner, C Victor Martinez, 1b Ben Broussard, and young SS Jhonny Peralta. The outfield is fast with Jason Michael, Grady Sizemore and Casey Blake. Aaron Boone brings experience on the hot corner.
The starting pitching is solid with Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, Paul Byrd, Jake Westbrook, and Jason Johnson. Though this is a young staff, they will mature into a solid core if Cleveland can keep them together. The bullpen is fine with Bob Wickman acting as the very heavy anchor. Although Wickman is injury prone, when he is healthy, he is probably the most under rated closer in the business and that again can only help the Indians. They should be in the wildcard chase right until the end of the season and could actually sneak into the playoffs.
Minnesota Twins – The Twins probably have the best battery combination, Johan Santana and Joe Mauer, in all of baseball. They have the human highlight reel in Centerfielder Torii Hunter. They have the best bullpen and one of the best closers, Joe Nathan, in baseball. In spite of all this, the Twins will be lucky to finish 3rd in this division. They are lucky that the Tigers and Royals play in the same division and are terrible. It seems that their talented farm system and unwillingness to spend money to sign players because of their knucklehead cheap owner, Carl Pohland, has finally caught up with this once powerful and proud franchise.
Detroit Tigers – Dysfunctional is the best way to describe this franchise. They fired Alan Trammel at the end of last season, even though he was a hometown hero and was supposed to be the person to see the team through these growing pains, even though they lost 119, 90 and 91 under his tenure. The Tigers went and hired Jim Leyland out of retirement who readily admitted that he did not even know half the players on his roster. I know Leyland was successful in the past, and Jack McKeon’s success in Florida in 2003 might have sparked Detroit management to reach deep for Leyland. However, is he really a rebuilding type, who is ready to lose 80-90 games again this season? I don’t know who the candidates were, but a younger managerial candidate probably deserved this job, rather than a recycled manager.
Kansas City Royals – I am not sure that KC is any better than their Triple-A affiliate in Omaha, who finished 4th out of 8 in their Pacific Coast League Division. The uninspiring Buddy Bell leads this young team in battle, and there seem to be no indications that this year’s version will be any better or different from the past few years, where they have lost 100 or more three out of the past four seasons. Mike Sweeney returns, to become the subject of trade rumors come July. Mike MacDougal overcame arm and control problems to regain the closers role, and if he remains consistent could become trade bait as well. It almost seems as if the Royals have become like the KC Athletics in the 60’s, a farm team for the rest of the league, where its players are not retained or traded to the upper echelon to become superstars elsewhere. Where have you gone George Brett?
AL WEST
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, California West Coast, Pacific Time Zone, USA – The Angels remain the cream of the crop in the west, though I can never be sure what there actual franchise name is going to be. I think with NHL’s Anaheim Mighty Ducks dropping the Mighty part of their name, maybe the Angels should become the LA Mighty Angels, but again this is another story. The Angels remain the team to beat primarily because the Oakland Athletics keep trying to convince us that Moneyball is the way to go, and prefers to spend time and effort on analytics and won’t pony up the cash for quality players, and Seattle and Texas are projected to be not good.
The starting pitching is good, but not great across the board. They have one large starting pitcher in Bartolo Colon, one young in John Lackey, a converted closer in Kelvim Escobar, one sophomore in Ervin Santana, and one journeyman with 6 career starts in Henry Carrasco. They have a top notch closer in Francisco Rodriguez and a bullpen that is second only to the Twins. I think this team is going to have tough time outside their division with this pitching, and I see many high scoring affairs, which is going to put an even heavier burden on the bullpen.
The offense is going to score many runs with RF Vlad Guerrero, 3b Chone Figgins, LF Garratt Anderson, and CF Darin Erstad. Casey Kotchman gets the nod at 1b, and Dallas MacPherson still needs to be proving he can play at the major league level. If this team is able to acquire Manny Ramirez from the Red Sox, then there will be no stopping this juggernaut until October, when they will most assuredly crash and burn in the playoffs.
Oakland Athletics – The one thing the A’s have going for them is they probably have the best starting pitching west of Chicago. They are led by former CY Young winner Barry Zito, along with the homegrown Rich Harden, Danny Haren, Joe Blanton and imported free agent Esteban Loaiza. I am concerned because Harden, Haren and Blanton are all young, with a ton of potential. It just begs the question are we looking at another case of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, where the Cubs just threw those young arms right into the ground, and now neither of them have been injury free for the past two or three seasons. Manager Ken Macha, needs to make sure he does not blow out an elbow or a shoulder on these young guns. This makes the Athletics almost the Anti-Angels in that they have pitching but virtually no hitting.
The A’s offense will be led this year by the acquisition of the Frank “Big Hurt” Thomas, whose nickname used to be about his bat and now it refers to his body. Thomas will be the DH, and will be surrounded with a bunch of up and coming players like SS Bobby Crosby, 1b Dan Johnson, LF Nick Swisher and experience Veterans like 3b Eric Chavez, CF Mark Kotsay, C Jason Kendall and notorious hothead RF Milton Bradley. This team will be competitive but will fall out of contention in August, after the trading deadline. If they get off slow start then look for them to put some of their pitchers on the trading block.
Seattle Mariners – I put the Mariners above the Rangers only because one of these teams needs to finish in 3rd and one needs to be in 4th. I question the wisdom of bringing in a catcher who speaks neither English nor Spanish, the primary language of 95% of the pitchers in the major leagues, but that is exactly what the Mariners did this year by signing Kenji Johjima. The players that have come to the United States from Japan have been generally very good and I am sure that Johjima is also a good suspicious catcher, and a decent hitter, at least that is the scouting report. However, how is he going to communicate with his pitchers, and control a ball game as a catcher is supposed to if he cannot even speak the same language. The appeal of a Japanese player in the Pacific Northwest probably makes sense from a marketing perspective; I am just not convinced this move makes sense in a competitive sense. I hope I am proven wrong and he excels and the Seattle pitching staff raves about working with this guy, but paint me red with skepticism.
The other big story out of Seattle this year will be the continued development of Felix Hernandez, the best 19 year old to play in the major leagues since Dwight Gooden in 1984. I hope that he continues to flash brilliance and give the hope for the M’s in the years to come. Otherwise it is just watching 90 year Jamie Moyer, an injury prone Joel Pineiro, and retreads Gil Meche and Jarrod Washburn. Their closer is “Everyday” Eddie Guardado, who really isn’t everyday anymore, since he is often injured. The bullpen is below average, with only JJ Putz standing out, because his last name is Yiddish for penis.
The offense is nothing to write home about with Ichiro looking to collect 200 hits again and get back on track this year, after an off year in 2005. Adrian Beltre seems to be a hit year wonder, (his contract year with the Dodgers), and shows no signs his old bat is going to return anytime soon. Jeremy Reed was the most coveted CF this off-season after Johnny Damon, which makes absolutely no sense. Reed hit .254/3/45 with 15 stolen bases. I don’t know why everyone is raving about him, but it seems reasonable he will be traded by the All-Star break.
Texas Rangers – Tom Hicks has done nothing with this franchise since he flushed ¼ billion dollars down the drain when he signed Alex Rodriguez in 2001. This years team will have a number of big boppers with 1b Mark Texiera, 3b Hank Blalock and SS Michael Young. The outfield is average with Brad Wilkerson, the jewel of the Alfonso Soriano trade with the Nationals, David Dellucci and Kevin Mench. The pitching seems to be starting from scratch with Kevin Millwood, Adam Eaton and Vincente Padilla all making their Ranger debuts this season. They have a good to great closer in Francisco Cordero, but won’t have many opportunities to use him.
Friday, February 10, 2006
More Reasons Beer is good
"Electricity originates inside clouds. There, it forms into lightning, which is attracted to the Earth by golfers. After entering the ground, the electricity hardens into coal, which, when dug up by power companies and burned in big ovens called 'generators,' turns back into electricity... where it is transformed by TV sets into commercials for beer, which passes through the consumers and back into the ground, thus completing what is known as a 'circuit.'"
Thursday, February 09, 2006
The Value of Beer, for those that forgot
A herd of buffalo can move only as fast as the slowest buffalo. When the herd is hunted, it is the slowest and weakest ones at the back that are killed first. This natural selection is good for the herd as a whole, because the general speed and health of the whole group keeps improving by the regular killing of the weakest members.
In much the same way the human brain can only operate as fast as the slowest brain cells. Excessive intake of alcohol, we all know, kills brain cells, but naturally it attacks the slowest and weakest brain cells first. In this way regular consumption of beer eliminates the weaker brain cells, making the brain a faster and more efficient machine. That's why you always feel smarter after a few beers, and that's why beer is so GOOD for you!
In much the same way the human brain can only operate as fast as the slowest brain cells. Excessive intake of alcohol, we all know, kills brain cells, but naturally it attacks the slowest and weakest brain cells first. In this way regular consumption of beer eliminates the weaker brain cells, making the brain a faster and more efficient machine. That's why you always feel smarter after a few beers, and that's why beer is so GOOD for you!
Monday, February 06, 2006
Baseball Pontifications
I have created a new blog for my random baseball thoughts and rants. Please check it out and add it to your bookmarks. Maybe you can comment a bunch let me know you are reading it my pontifications.
You can now check out my 2006 AL Preivew
jeffherzbaseball.blogspot.com
You can now check out my 2006 AL Preivew
jeffherzbaseball.blogspot.com
Sunday, February 05, 2006
Congratulations Steelers
They finally got one for the thumb!!!!
Pittsburgh Steelers, SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS
Pittsburgh Steelers, SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS
2006 AL Predictions
So it is early February 2006, pitchers and catchers are due to report on the 16th. It is time to make my annual (usually poor) predictions for the upcoming season.
First, this year is going to be a bit different during the spring because of the World Baseball Classic (WBC). This even sponsored by MLB and sanctioned by the Players Union, is essentially throwing players into game time situations a month earlier than normal, and they will be excepted to perform for their country, while getting paid nothing. I believe this is going to be a big exhibition, think All-Star spread out over a month, where the largest concern will be which player is seriously injured and thus this injury has a large impact upon his team’s regular season performance. This tournament should be played in November or December. Then the players not on a playoff team would be able to train, work out together in October, and be more prepared to play with no limits or caveats. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
Second, there is going to be a recurring them in my preview that starting pitching is considered a premium and the majority of the teams lack quality and/or depth in this area. All of the playoff caliber teams and some of the fringe teams only have a few quality proven starters that will be responsible for carrying their teams throughout the stopper. The player they will look to stop a two, three or four game losing streak. I only see last year’s World Series participants, Chicago White Sox and Houston Astro’s, having significant and quality depth at the starting pitcher position. So let’s go:
AL EAST
NY Yankees – (being a biased Yankee fan), I still think the Yankees are the team to beat in the East. They don’t seem to have improved much, but they also have not moved back. They have upgraded with Johnny Damon in CF, replacing the aging Bernie Williams, who will take over the primary DH role, and bat off the bench. Damon brings stability to the top of the order, that the Bombers have not had since Chuck Knoblaugh and his erratic throwing problems went away in 2000. Damon’s arrival allows SS Derek Jeter to move back to the #2 hole, and 3b Alex Rodriguez 3rd in the batting order. This seems to play to both of their strengths. Although Jeter might be a better lead-off hitter than Damon, his strengths and ability to move runners, hit to the other field and willingness to sacrifice his production for the teams, makes the Captain better suited for batting 2nd. With reigning MVP A-Rod hitting between Jeter and some combination of RF Gary Sheffield, LF Hideki Matsui, and/or 1b Jason Giambi, he should continue to pound the ball. The middle of the order is older, and probably more susceptible to injury but should have no problem scoring runs. It is going to be difficult to find anyone to pitch around in the top 6 of the order. Rounding out the bottom of the order, the Yankees will send out an aging C Jorge Posada, a past his prime DH Bernie Williams and the young phenom from last year 2b Robinson Cano. Unfortunately is this where rallies will go to die, and I am guessing that a mid-season acquisition will come to relieve Williams of day-to-day responsibility and put Giambi squarely on the bench as the primary DH.
The 2006 Yankees will go only as far as the pitching of Mike Mussina and Randy Johnson take them. These two are considered the jewels of the staff, and need to step up and take responsibility for this team, especially under the guidance of first time pitching coach Ron Guidry. Johnson has a lot of explaining to do (with his left arm) after that stinker of Game 3 in the divisional playoffs last year and other than that gutsy performance by Mussina in Game 6 of the 2003 ALCS, I have been overall unimpressed with Moose in pinstripes. If they fail to deliver this year, then they both should be considered NY failures. Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright were essentially useless and/or injured last year, providing virtually no value whatsoever. I would not be surprised if one of these two (probably Pavano) is sent packing via a trade before the teams head north in March. The rest of the over crowded staff is rounded out by the real saviors of the 2005 team, Shawn Chacon, Aaron Small and Ching-Ming Wang. They all deserve a shot in the rotation, but Small will probably start in the pen as a long reliever, which limits the value that he was able to provide to the team last year. It seems seniority and larger contracts will prevail, and that could prove to be a mistake as the year wears on, and might be an Achilles heal.
The bullpen is anchored by the almost untouchable Mariano Rivera. Against the rest of Major League Baseball, Mo remains the best that ever played, but a combination of times seen, a great lineup, and ultimately aging, he remains suspect against their largest AL East rivals, the Boston Red Sox. During the regular season he will be fine, but I don’t think he should pitch in 70+ and be asked to save 40+ games this year. The Yankees have completely rebuilt their bridge to Rivera bringing in a slew of solid middle relievers. These include former closers Octavio Dotel and Kyle Farnsworth and career setup players Ron Villone and Mike Myers, plus the return of Tanyon Sturtze. Some how this group is going to need to bring the Yankees from the 5th inning through the 8th without allowing too much damage to get to Rivera. This could pose to be their largest problem, but as the saying goes, every team has this same situation. I am not sure what it is about middle relievers and why they excel one year and not the next, and in one location but not their new surroundings. All and all it is a very strange situation, which someone should try to figure out before another mult-million dollar contract is spent on a run of the mill middle reliever, but that is another story.
Boston Red Sox – I am not sure what to make of their off-season moves, both on the field and off. The Theo Epstein thing was just strange, how he left the organization on Halloween in a gorilla suit to avoid the media, then slinks back in January after no one apparently wanted the job. I just wonder if this disarray will have an effect on the field as the season progresses. The players are saying the right thing about supporting Theo and glad that he is back, but having seen some of the most disorganized front offices with the Yankees in the 1980’s and 1990’s just makes me wonder. However, it does seem that Epstein ultimately has gotten his way, by not holding onto the stars of 2004, and has attempted to recast the BoSox as a more athletic and younger team, with a stronger sense of defense ingrained into the organization. If nothing else, this team is built to play beyond the 2006 season, something that may not be said about their rivals in the Bronx. So let’s take a look:
The Mark Loretta trade is an absolute steal. They traded a Doug Mirabelli (who was knuckleball pitcher Tim Wakefield’s private catcher), to the Padres for one of the best all around 2b. It seems to me Boston took SD to the cleaners. The Red Sox also won in the Marlins fire sale, which could be collusion since the Red Sox owners, used to be the owners of the Marlins, but that is another issue. Coming to Boston is Yankee beater SP Josh Beckett, former Yankee 3b Mike Lowell and Guillermo Mota, who was traded to Cleveland for CF Coco Crisp. Returning from last year is captain C Jason Variteck, LF Manny Ramirez, RF Trot Nixon, DH David (Big Papi) Ortiz and 1b Kevin Youkalis who will share the job with free agent acquisition JT Snow. Lowell is coming off two down years, and one has to wonder can be bounce back in the AL. Crisp has never played exclusively in CF, and poses a defensive risk in the expansive Fenway Park. I think they have succeeded in making the team younger and somewhat more defensive. The offensive numbers will probably lag behind past years, but they should win sufficient games depending on the Manny Ramirez situation. Manny began the off-season requesting a trade. The Red Sox front office says they have been trying to move him, but it is difficult to find a team, that is willing to part with enough players and/or money to justify the Red Sox moving his bat to another team. They are currently in talks with the Anaheim Angels of Los Angeles California, West Coast, United States of America. It is worth keeping an eye on to see how Manny responds, because if he is “Manny” and oblivious ot the situation then the Red Sox will be fine, but if he sulks, ala Randy Johnson with the Mariners in 1998, then the Boston fans could be in for a long season.
As with the Yankees, the Red Sox pitching staff currently lacks sufficient and proven depth. Curt Schilling will be back to anchor this staff, but having had significant ankle problems in 2004 and 2005, makes me question his durability. David Wells is still with the team, though he has requested a trade to a West Coast team, I am guessing this will happen during spring training, when teams see Boomer can still throw. Even if he is not traded, his weight, his health and his attitude will be a problem for whatever team he ultimately plays. He is good to great when he is motivated, but only mediocre to average, when not pushed. Beckett, the 2003 World Series MVP, is only seven games over .500 for his career and has a history of blister problems. Pitchers moving from the NL to the AL, often have a hard time adjusting so it could be a long season for him. The rotation is rounded out by Matt Clement, Tim Wakefield and the rookie Jonathon Papelbon. The closer is the inconsistent Keith Foulke and the rest of the relief core, Mike Timlin, David Riske, Bronson Arroyo, Rudy Saeanez, and Julian Tavarez are very serviceable and probably as good as any other middle relievers. The weak link in the bullpen is still Foulke, and if he falters, will Craig Hanson be ready for the big time this year? I think they will still be strong enough to hold off the hard charging Blue Jays, and what should be the vastly improved Orioles.
Toronto Blue Jays - I am impressed by what the Blue Jays have done this off-season, but unfortunately, it won’t be enough to conquer both the Yankees and the Red Sox. If either team above them falters the Jays could slip into 2nd place finish and possibly a wild card, which would be a huge accomplishment for them, but it probably is not going to happen this year. They brought two pitchers SP AJ Burnett and Closer BJ Ryan north of border, to bring a major upgrade at both areas. Joining Burnett will be former CY Young winner Roy Halladay, former Yankee Ted Lilly, Gustavo Chacin and Josh Towers. The relief corps is young and maturing, and should prove to be a good bridge to Ryan, and his entire 42 career saves with 36 coming last year for the Orioles. It seems the Blue Jays have risked everything on one endeavor, hoping that Ryan is not a one-year wonder, but a solid long term closer. I hope for their sake that he pans out.
The offense is a bit lopsided right now with 4 players able to play 1b/3b/dh. Lyle Overbay, Troy Glaus and SHea Hillenbrand are currently slotted into those three positions with Eric Hinske being the odd man out, who could possibly be traded before spring training is over. What is also odd is that the 2b/ss pairing Aaron Hill and Russ Adams, have just one year experience and are being asked to hold down the center of the infield. It is a lot to ask of you players. The OF is solid with CF Vernon Wells anchoring LF Reed Johnson and RF Alexis Rios, who hopefully after a terrible sophomore campaign is ready to live up to his elite status. They are a young team, who have spent some money to improve their team and should be fun to watch for a few years to come.
Baltimore Orioles – The Orioles biggest acquisition might have come off the field this season. Manager Sam Perlozzo, was able to convince his old friend and best man at his wedding, Leo Mazzone to come and be his pitching coach. Mazzone who was the Atlanta Braves pitching coach, through their amazing 14 year run of divisional championship who helped guide Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Steve Avery, Mark Wohlers, and many others to pitching greatness in Georgia. Can he bring that same magic to Maryland with Rodrigo Lopez, Kris Benson, Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera and Bruce Chen? It would certainly add credibility to his hall of fame credentials, as the best non-managing coach of the past quarter century.
The Orioles offense made more waves regarding trade requests than anything else this winter. Both SS Miguel Tejeda and C/1b/DH Javy Lopez requested to be traded, because the team was not doing enough to be competitive in the AL East, and quite frankly I need to agree with them. They acquired Corey Patterson, Keith Millar and Jeff Coninie who all come with different negative luggage or age concerns. The pitching is atrocious, with no clear leader. I always had hoped that Kris Benson would amount to more than a .500 pitcher that he had been with the Pirates and the Mets, and maybe he can be in the AL. Bruce Chen has bounced (8 teams) around more than any 29 year old that I am aware. Leo Mazzone certainly has his job cut out for him with this team.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays - Anything you read about the Rays says they will be competitive in 2008 and beyond. They are rebuilding again for the 3rd (?) time in 8 seasons. Some have proposed allowing some teams like the Devil Rays to float between divisions to give them a chance to be competitive, since it is difficult to gain traction when you plan the Yankees and Red Sox 19 times each season. IN order to start making money, they need to win, and in order to win they need to start making money. It is a touch situation for the Rays, and one that is not going to be solved in 2006, as the Rays wind up in the AL East Basement again this year.
AL Central
Chicago White Sox – I have to give the White Sox the credit they deserve for winning last year and bringing the first baseball championship to Chicago since 1917. They won the old fashion way, with solid pitching, smart base running, timely hitting and strong defense. They were a team similar to the Yankees in the late 1990’s no superstar or one dimensional player which distracted from the team, just a group of players working together under a young and energetic manager, Ozzie Guillen, who gelled at the right time to win the whole thing. Why am I dwelling on the past, when this is supposed to be a preview for this season? Well, the White Sox have kept the core from last year, and seemingly improved. They have to be the odds on favorite to repeat. They have the most pitching depth, and a solid offense. It is on paper, a great combination. If you look at the past few champions they are one hit wonders. The Red Sox imploded on Curt Schillings ankle and a different team now (see above). The Marlins had a fire sale this off-season after just missing another wild card slot last year. The Angles continue to compete, but are unable to get that mojo (or stupid rally monkey) back they had in 2002 and the Diamondbacks are back in the crapper. None of those teams was built for longevity. I think the White Sox could be a force to reckon with for a few years to come.
The infied remains in tact with AJ Pierzynski behind the dish, 1b Paul Konerko, 2b Tag Iguchi, SS Juan Uribe and 3b Joe Crede. Scott Podsednik will continue to patrol left and swipe bases, Jermaine Dye is the modern day David Justic in Right, he just keeps winding up on playoff teams. Brian Anderson takes over in Center from Aaron Rowand who was traded to Philadelphia which brought Jim Thome to the second city. Thome had many injury problems during his stay in Philly, and Ryan Howard was ready to take over at 1b. The most telling thing about this team, was after this trade, Thome got on the phone and called Paul Konerko, his fellow first baseman and pleaded with him to resign in Chicago. How often to you have a player who has been just traded to that team call a free agent who happens to play the same position (yes I know Thome will ultimately DH, but that is not the point)? Almost never, but that is what happened that brought Konerko back to the Windy City to share 1B/DH with Thome. That is teamwork, and it should be commended.
IF it is possible, the White Sox pitching is going to be better this year than last. They lost El Duque Orlando Hernandez to the Diamondbacks, but in return, they got Javier Vazquez, who is an excellent pitcher and not being asked to be the ace in this rotation. Although he struggled in the second half of his one year in New York, he is an inning horse that throws many strikeouts and will fit well into a rotation that includes Mark Buehrle, Freddy Garcia, Jose Contreas, Jon Garland and the up and coming Brandon McCarthy. What Guillen did was the bullpen and the closer role last year was masterful and should be emulated by budget conscious teams around the league. By mid-summer, he was using a closer by committee approach, which I have panned in the past that worked out quite successfully. He would bring on the best pitcher for the situation they were currently facing in the game. For instance if he was facing a tough situation in the 7th inning, then he would bring in the person who had earned the last four saves, in this non-save situation. This philosophy allows the White Sox payroll flexibility, since they don’t have to shell outrageous amounts of money for player to pitch one inning or less.
Cleveland Indians - The Indians made an impressive run at the White Sox at the end of last season, with a young and talented team that they can parlay that run into a strong start to the season. They have a young nucleus and seem to be using the model they employed in the late 1980’s to sign young players to long term contracts. This worked for them then as they were the kings of the AL Central in the mid-1990’s with Thome, Baerga, Vizquel, Ramirez and Lofton. The Chicago Cleveland rivalry could become the next Yankee/Red Sox or Cubs/Cardinals over the next few years. The Indians have a stong lineup with a lot of power in DH Travis Hafner, C Victor Martinez, 1b Ben Broussard, and young SS Jhonny Peralta. The outfield is fast with Jason Michael, Grady Sizemore and Casey Blake. Aaron Boone brings experience on the hot corner.
The starting pitching is solid with Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, Paul Byrd, Jake Westbrook, and Jason Johnson. Though this is a young staff, they will mature into a solid core if Cleveland can keep them together. The bullpen is fine with Bob Wickman acting as the very heavy anchor. Although Wickman is injury prone, when he is healthy, he is probably the most under rated closer in the business and that again can only help the Indians. They should be in the wildcard chase right until the end of the season and could actually sneak into the playoffs.
Minnesota Twins – The Twins probably have the best battery combination, Johan Santana and Joe Mauer, in all of baseball. They have the human highlight reel in Centerfielder Torii Hunter. They have the best bullpen and one of the best closers, Joe Nathan, in baseball. In spite of all this, the Twins will be lucky to finish 3rd in this division. They are lucky that the Tigers and Royals play in the same division and are terrible. It seems that their talented farm system and unwillingness to spend money to sign players because of their knucklehead cheap owner, Carl Pohland, has finally caught up with this once powerful and proud franchise.
Detroit Tigers – Dysfunctional is the best way to describe this franchise. They fired Alan Trammel at the end of last season, even though he was a hometown hero and was supposed to be the person to see the team through these growing pains, even though they lost 119, 90 and 91 under his tenure. The Tigers went and hired Jim Leyland out of retirement who readily admitted that he did not even know half the players on his roster. I know Leyland was successful in the past, and Jack McKeon’s success in Florida in 2003 might have sparked Detroit management to reach deep for Leyland. However, is he really a rebuilding type, who is ready to lose 80-90 games again this season? I don’t know who the candidates were, but a younger managerial candidate probably deserved this job, rather than a recycled manager.
Kansas City Royals – I am not sure that KC is any better than their Triple-A affiliate in Omaha, who finished 4th out of 8 in their Pacific Coast League Division. The uninspiring Buddy Bell leads this young team in battle, and there seem to be no indications that this year’s version will be any better or different from the past few years, where they have lost 100 or more three out of the past four seasons. Mike Sweeney returns, to become the subject of trade rumors come July. Mike MacDougal overcame arm and control problems to regain the closers role, and if he remains consistent could become trade bait as well. It almost seems as if the Royals have become like the KC Athletics in the 60’s, a farm team for the rest of the league, where its players are not retained or traded to the upper echelon to become superstars elsewhere. Where have you gone George Brett?
AL WEST
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, California West Coast, Pacific Time Zone, USA – The Angels remain the cream of the crop in the west, though I can never be sure what there actual franchise name is going to be. I think with NHL’s Anaheim Mighty Ducks dropping the Mighty part of their name, maybe the Angels should become the LA Mighty Angels, but again this is another story. The Angels remain the team to beat primarily because the Oakland Athletics keep trying to convince us that Moneyball is the way to go, and prefers to spend time and effort on analytics and won’t pony up the cash for quality players, and Seattle and Texas are projected to be not good.
The starting pitching is good, but not great across the board. They have one large starting pitcher in Bartolo Colon, one young in John Lackey, a converted closer in Kelvim Escobar, one sophomore in Ervin Santana, and one journeyman with 6 career starts in Henry Carrasco. They have a top notch closer in Francisco Rodriguez and a bullpen that is second only to the Twins. I think this team is going to have tough time outside their division with this pitching, and I see many high scoring affairs, which is going to put an even heavier burden on the bullpen.
The offense is going to score many runs with RF Vlad Guerrero, 3b Chone Figgins, LF Garratt Anderson, and CF Darin Erstad. Casey Kotchman gets the nod at 1b, and Dallas MacPherson still needs to be proving he can play at the major league level. If this team is able to acquire Manny Ramirez from the Red Sox, then there will be no stopping this juggernaut until October, when they will most assuredly crash and burn in the playoffs.
Oakland Athletics – The one thing the A’s have going for them is they probably have the best starting pitching west of Chicago. They are led by former CY Young winner Barry Zito, along with the homegrown Rich Harden, Danny Haren, Joe Blanton and imported free agent Esteban Loaiza. I am concerned because Harden, Haren and Blanton are all young, with a ton of potential. It just begs the question are we looking at another case of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, where the Cubs just threw those young arms right into the ground, and now neither of them have been injury free for the past two or three seasons. Manager Ken Macha, needs to make sure he does not blow out an elbow or a shoulder on these young guns. This makes the Athletics almost the Anti-Angels in that they have pitching but virtually no hitting.
The A’s offense will be led this year by the acquisition of the Frank “Big Hurt” Thomas, whose nickname used to be about his bat and now it refers to his body. Thomas will be the DH, and will be surrounded with a bunch of up and coming players like SS Bobby Crosby, 1b Dan Johnson, LF Nick Swisher and experience Veterans like 3b Eric Chavez, CF Mark Kotsay, C Jason Kendall and notorious hothead RF Milton Bradley. This team will be competitive but will fall out of contention in August, after the trading deadline. If they get off slow start then look for them to put some of their pitchers on the trading block.
Seattle Mariners – I put the Mariners above the Rangers only because one of these teams needs to finish in 3rd and one needs to be in 4th. I question the wisdom of bringing in a catcher who speaks neither English nor Spanish, the primary language of 95% of the pitchers in the major leagues, but that is exactly what the Mariners did this year by signing Kenji Johjima. The players that have come to the United States from Japan have been generally very good and I am sure that Johjima is also a good suspicious catcher, and a decent hitter, at least that is the scouting report. However, how is he going to communicate with his pitchers, and control a ball game as a catcher is supposed to if he cannot even speak the same language. The appeal of a Japanese player in the Pacific Northwest probably makes sense from a marketing perspective; I am just not convinced this move makes sense in a competitive sense. I hope I am proven wrong and he excels and the Seattle pitching staff raves about working with this guy, but paint me red with skepticism.
The other big story out of Seattle this year will be the continued development of Felix Hernandez, the best 19 year old to play in the major leagues since Dwight Gooden in 1984. I hope that he continues to flash brilliance and give the hope for the M’s in the years to come. Otherwise it is just watching 90 year Jamie Moyer, an injury prone Joel Pineiro, and retreads Gil Meche and Jarrod Washburn. Their closer is “Everyday” Eddie Guardado, who really isn’t everyday anymore, since he is often injured. The bullpen is below average, with only JJ Putz standing out, because his last name is Yiddish for penis.
The offense is nothing to write home about with Ichiro looking to collect 200 hits again and get back on track this year, after an off year in 2005. Adrian Beltre seems to be a hit year wonder, (his contract year with the Dodgers), and shows no signs his old bat is going to return anytime soon. Jeremy Reed was the most coveted CF this off-season after Johnny Damon, which makes absolutely no sense. Reed hit .254/3/45 with 15 stolen bases. I don’t know why everyone is raving about him, but it seems reasonable he will be traded by the All-Star break.
Texas Rangers – Tom Hicks has done nothing with this franchise since he flushed ¼ billion dollars down the drain when he signed Alex Rodriguez in 2001. This years team will have a number of big boppers with 1b Mark Texiera, 3b Hank Blalock and SS Michael Young. The outfield is average with Brad Wilkerson, the jewel of the Alfonso Soriano trade with the Nationals, David Dellucci and Kevin Mench. The pitching seems to be starting from scratch with Kevin Millwood, Adam Eaton and Vincente Padilla all making their Ranger debuts this season. They have a good to great closer in Francisco Cordero, but won’t have many opportunities to use him.
First, this year is going to be a bit different during the spring because of the World Baseball Classic (WBC). This even sponsored by MLB and sanctioned by the Players Union, is essentially throwing players into game time situations a month earlier than normal, and they will be excepted to perform for their country, while getting paid nothing. I believe this is going to be a big exhibition, think All-Star spread out over a month, where the largest concern will be which player is seriously injured and thus this injury has a large impact upon his team’s regular season performance. This tournament should be played in November or December. Then the players not on a playoff team would be able to train, work out together in October, and be more prepared to play with no limits or caveats. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
Second, there is going to be a recurring them in my preview that starting pitching is considered a premium and the majority of the teams lack quality and/or depth in this area. All of the playoff caliber teams and some of the fringe teams only have a few quality proven starters that will be responsible for carrying their teams throughout the stopper. The player they will look to stop a two, three or four game losing streak. I only see last year’s World Series participants, Chicago White Sox and Houston Astro’s, having significant and quality depth at the starting pitcher position. So let’s go:
AL EAST
NY Yankees – (being a biased Yankee fan), I still think the Yankees are the team to beat in the East. They don’t seem to have improved much, but they also have not moved back. They have upgraded with Johnny Damon in CF, replacing the aging Bernie Williams, who will take over the primary DH role, and bat off the bench. Damon brings stability to the top of the order, that the Bombers have not had since Chuck Knoblaugh and his erratic throwing problems went away in 2000. Damon’s arrival allows SS Derek Jeter to move back to the #2 hole, and 3b Alex Rodriguez 3rd in the batting order. This seems to play to both of their strengths. Although Jeter might be a better lead-off hitter than Damon, his strengths and ability to move runners, hit to the other field and willingness to sacrifice his production for the teams, makes the Captain better suited for batting 2nd. With reigning MVP A-Rod hitting between Jeter and some combination of RF Gary Sheffield, LF Hideki Matsui, and/or 1b Jason Giambi, he should continue to pound the ball. The middle of the order is older, and probably more susceptible to injury but should have no problem scoring runs. It is going to be difficult to find anyone to pitch around in the top 6 of the order. Rounding out the bottom of the order, the Yankees will send out an aging C Jorge Posada, a past his prime DH Bernie Williams and the young phenom from last year 2b Robinson Cano. Unfortunately is this where rallies will go to die, and I am guessing that a mid-season acquisition will come to relieve Williams of day-to-day responsibility and put Giambi squarely on the bench as the primary DH.
The 2006 Yankees will go only as far as the pitching of Mike Mussina and Randy Johnson take them. These two are considered the jewels of the staff, and need to step up and take responsibility for this team, especially under the guidance of first time pitching coach Ron Guidry. Johnson has a lot of explaining to do (with his left arm) after that stinker of Game 3 in the divisional playoffs last year and other than that gutsy performance by Mussina in Game 6 of the 2003 ALCS, I have been overall unimpressed with Moose in pinstripes. If they fail to deliver this year, then they both should be considered NY failures. Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright were essentially useless and/or injured last year, providing virtually no value whatsoever. I would not be surprised if one of these two (probably Pavano) is sent packing via a trade before the teams head north in March. The rest of the over crowded staff is rounded out by the real saviors of the 2005 team, Shawn Chacon, Aaron Small and Ching-Ming Wang. They all deserve a shot in the rotation, but Small will probably start in the pen as a long reliever, which limits the value that he was able to provide to the team last year. It seems seniority and larger contracts will prevail, and that could prove to be a mistake as the year wears on, and might be an Achilles heal.
The bullpen is anchored by the almost untouchable Mariano Rivera. Against the rest of Major League Baseball, Mo remains the best that ever played, but a combination of times seen, a great lineup, and ultimately aging, he remains suspect against their largest AL East rivals, the Boston Red Sox. During the regular season he will be fine, but I don’t think he should pitch in 70+ and be asked to save 40+ games this year. The Yankees have completely rebuilt their bridge to Rivera bringing in a slew of solid middle relievers. These include former closers Octavio Dotel and Kyle Farnsworth and career setup players Ron Villone and Mike Myers, plus the return of Tanyon Sturtze. Some how this group is going to need to bring the Yankees from the 5th inning through the 8th without allowing too much damage to get to Rivera. This could pose to be their largest problem, but as the saying goes, every team has this same situation. I am not sure what it is about middle relievers and why they excel one year and not the next, and in one location but not their new surroundings. All and all it is a very strange situation, which someone should try to figure out before another mult-million dollar contract is spent on a run of the mill middle reliever, but that is another story.
Boston Red Sox – I am not sure what to make of their off-season moves, both on the field and off. The Theo Epstein thing was just strange, how he left the organization on Halloween in a gorilla suit to avoid the media, then slinks back in January after no one apparently wanted the job. I just wonder if this disarray will have an effect on the field as the season progresses. The players are saying the right thing about supporting Theo and glad that he is back, but having seen some of the most disorganized front offices with the Yankees in the 1980’s and 1990’s just makes me wonder. However, it does seem that Epstein ultimately has gotten his way, by not holding onto the stars of 2004, and has attempted to recast the BoSox as a more athletic and younger team, with a stronger sense of defense ingrained into the organization. If nothing else, this team is built to play beyond the 2006 season, something that may not be said about their rivals in the Bronx. So let’s take a look:
The Mark Loretta trade is an absolute steal. They traded a Doug Mirabelli (who was knuckleball pitcher Tim Wakefield’s private catcher), to the Padres for one of the best all around 2b. It seems to me Boston took SD to the cleaners. The Red Sox also won in the Marlins fire sale, which could be collusion since the Red Sox owners, used to be the owners of the Marlins, but that is another issue. Coming to Boston is Yankee beater SP Josh Beckett, former Yankee 3b Mike Lowell and Guillermo Mota, who was traded to Cleveland for CF Coco Crisp. Returning from last year is captain C Jason Variteck, LF Manny Ramirez, RF Trot Nixon, DH David (Big Papi) Ortiz and 1b Kevin Youkalis who will share the job with free agent acquisition JT Snow. Lowell is coming off two down years, and one has to wonder can be bounce back in the AL. Crisp has never played exclusively in CF, and poses a defensive risk in the expansive Fenway Park. I think they have succeeded in making the team younger and somewhat more defensive. The offensive numbers will probably lag behind past years, but they should win sufficient games depending on the Manny Ramirez situation. Manny began the off-season requesting a trade. The Red Sox front office says they have been trying to move him, but it is difficult to find a team, that is willing to part with enough players and/or money to justify the Red Sox moving his bat to another team. They are currently in talks with the Anaheim Angels of Los Angeles California, West Coast, United States of America. It is worth keeping an eye on to see how Manny responds, because if he is “Manny” and oblivious ot the situation then the Red Sox will be fine, but if he sulks, ala Randy Johnson with the Mariners in 1998, then the Boston fans could be in for a long season.
As with the Yankees, the Red Sox pitching staff currently lacks sufficient and proven depth. Curt Schilling will be back to anchor this staff, but having had significant ankle problems in 2004 and 2005, makes me question his durability. David Wells is still with the team, though he has requested a trade to a West Coast team, I am guessing this will happen during spring training, when teams see Boomer can still throw. Even if he is not traded, his weight, his health and his attitude will be a problem for whatever team he ultimately plays. He is good to great when he is motivated, but only mediocre to average, when not pushed. Beckett, the 2003 World Series MVP, is only seven games over .500 for his career and has a history of blister problems. Pitchers moving from the NL to the AL, often have a hard time adjusting so it could be a long season for him. The rotation is rounded out by Matt Clement, Tim Wakefield and the rookie Jonathon Papelbon. The closer is the inconsistent Keith Foulke and the rest of the relief core, Mike Timlin, David Riske, Bronson Arroyo, Rudy Saeanez, and Julian Tavarez are very serviceable and probably as good as any other middle relievers. The weak link in the bullpen is still Foulke, and if he falters, will Craig Hanson be ready for the big time this year? I think they will still be strong enough to hold off the hard charging Blue Jays, and what should be the vastly improved Orioles.
Toronto Blue Jays - I am impressed by what the Blue Jays have done this off-season, but unfortunately, it won’t be enough to conquer both the Yankees and the Red Sox. If either team above them falters the Jays could slip into 2nd place finish and possibly a wild card, which would be a huge accomplishment for them, but it probably is not going to happen this year. They brought two pitchers SP AJ Burnett and Closer BJ Ryan north of border, to bring a major upgrade at both areas. Joining Burnett will be former CY Young winner Roy Halladay, former Yankee Ted Lilly, Gustavo Chacin and Josh Towers. The relief corps is young and maturing, and should prove to be a good bridge to Ryan, and his entire 42 career saves with 36 coming last year for the Orioles. It seems the Blue Jays have risked everything on one endeavor, hoping that Ryan is not a one-year wonder, but a solid long term closer. I hope for their sake that he pans out.
The offense is a bit lopsided right now with 4 players able to play 1b/3b/dh. Lyle Overbay, Troy Glaus and SHea Hillenbrand are currently slotted into those three positions with Eric Hinske being the odd man out, who could possibly be traded before spring training is over. What is also odd is that the 2b/ss pairing Aaron Hill and Russ Adams, have just one year experience and are being asked to hold down the center of the infield. It is a lot to ask of you players. The OF is solid with CF Vernon Wells anchoring LF Reed Johnson and RF Alexis Rios, who hopefully after a terrible sophomore campaign is ready to live up to his elite status. They are a young team, who have spent some money to improve their team and should be fun to watch for a few years to come.
Baltimore Orioles – The Orioles biggest acquisition might have come off the field this season. Manager Sam Perlozzo, was able to convince his old friend and best man at his wedding, Leo Mazzone to come and be his pitching coach. Mazzone who was the Atlanta Braves pitching coach, through their amazing 14 year run of divisional championship who helped guide Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Steve Avery, Mark Wohlers, and many others to pitching greatness in Georgia. Can he bring that same magic to Maryland with Rodrigo Lopez, Kris Benson, Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera and Bruce Chen? It would certainly add credibility to his hall of fame credentials, as the best non-managing coach of the past quarter century.
The Orioles offense made more waves regarding trade requests than anything else this winter. Both SS Miguel Tejeda and C/1b/DH Javy Lopez requested to be traded, because the team was not doing enough to be competitive in the AL East, and quite frankly I need to agree with them. They acquired Corey Patterson, Keith Millar and Jeff Coninie who all come with different negative luggage or age concerns. The pitching is atrocious, with no clear leader. I always had hoped that Kris Benson would amount to more than a .500 pitcher that he had been with the Pirates and the Mets, and maybe he can be in the AL. Bruce Chen has bounced (8 teams) around more than any 29 year old that I am aware. Leo Mazzone certainly has his job cut out for him with this team.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays - Anything you read about the Rays says they will be competitive in 2008 and beyond. They are rebuilding again for the 3rd (?) time in 8 seasons. Some have proposed allowing some teams like the Devil Rays to float between divisions to give them a chance to be competitive, since it is difficult to gain traction when you plan the Yankees and Red Sox 19 times each season. IN order to start making money, they need to win, and in order to win they need to start making money. It is a touch situation for the Rays, and one that is not going to be solved in 2006, as the Rays wind up in the AL East Basement again this year.
AL Central
Chicago White Sox – I have to give the White Sox the credit they deserve for winning last year and bringing the first baseball championship to Chicago since 1917. They won the old fashion way, with solid pitching, smart base running, timely hitting and strong defense. They were a team similar to the Yankees in the late 1990’s no superstar or one dimensional player which distracted from the team, just a group of players working together under a young and energetic manager, Ozzie Guillen, who gelled at the right time to win the whole thing. Why am I dwelling on the past, when this is supposed to be a preview for this season? Well, the White Sox have kept the core from last year, and seemingly improved. They have to be the odds on favorite to repeat. They have the most pitching depth, and a solid offense. It is on paper, a great combination. If you look at the past few champions they are one hit wonders. The Red Sox imploded on Curt Schillings ankle and a different team now (see above). The Marlins had a fire sale this off-season after just missing another wild card slot last year. The Angles continue to compete, but are unable to get that mojo (or stupid rally monkey) back they had in 2002 and the Diamondbacks are back in the crapper. None of those teams was built for longevity. I think the White Sox could be a force to reckon with for a few years to come.
The infied remains in tact with AJ Pierzynski behind the dish, 1b Paul Konerko, 2b Tag Iguchi, SS Juan Uribe and 3b Joe Crede. Scott Podsednik will continue to patrol left and swipe bases, Jermaine Dye is the modern day David Justic in Right, he just keeps winding up on playoff teams. Brian Anderson takes over in Center from Aaron Rowand who was traded to Philadelphia which brought Jim Thome to the second city. Thome had many injury problems during his stay in Philly, and Ryan Howard was ready to take over at 1b. The most telling thing about this team, was after this trade, Thome got on the phone and called Paul Konerko, his fellow first baseman and pleaded with him to resign in Chicago. How often to you have a player who has been just traded to that team call a free agent who happens to play the same position (yes I know Thome will ultimately DH, but that is not the point)? Almost never, but that is what happened that brought Konerko back to the Windy City to share 1B/DH with Thome. That is teamwork, and it should be commended.
IF it is possible, the White Sox pitching is going to be better this year than last. They lost El Duque Orlando Hernandez to the Diamondbacks, but in return, they got Javier Vazquez, who is an excellent pitcher and not being asked to be the ace in this rotation. Although he struggled in the second half of his one year in New York, he is an inning horse that throws many strikeouts and will fit well into a rotation that includes Mark Buehrle, Freddy Garcia, Jose Contreas, Jon Garland and the up and coming Brandon McCarthy. What Guillen did was the bullpen and the closer role last year was masterful and should be emulated by budget conscious teams around the league. By mid-summer, he was using a closer by committee approach, which I have panned in the past that worked out quite successfully. He would bring on the best pitcher for the situation they were currently facing in the game. For instance if he was facing a tough situation in the 7th inning, then he would bring in the person who had earned the last four saves, in this non-save situation. This philosophy allows the White Sox payroll flexibility, since they don’t have to shell outrageous amounts of money for player to pitch one inning or less.
Cleveland Indians - The Indians made an impressive run at the White Sox at the end of last season, with a young and talented team that they can parlay that run into a strong start to the season. They have a young nucleus and seem to be using the model they employed in the late 1980’s to sign young players to long term contracts. This worked for them then as they were the kings of the AL Central in the mid-1990’s with Thome, Baerga, Vizquel, Ramirez and Lofton. The Chicago Cleveland rivalry could become the next Yankee/Red Sox or Cubs/Cardinals over the next few years. The Indians have a stong lineup with a lot of power in DH Travis Hafner, C Victor Martinez, 1b Ben Broussard, and young SS Jhonny Peralta. The outfield is fast with Jason Michael, Grady Sizemore and Casey Blake. Aaron Boone brings experience on the hot corner.
The starting pitching is solid with Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, Paul Byrd, Jake Westbrook, and Jason Johnson. Though this is a young staff, they will mature into a solid core if Cleveland can keep them together. The bullpen is fine with Bob Wickman acting as the very heavy anchor. Although Wickman is injury prone, when he is healthy, he is probably the most under rated closer in the business and that again can only help the Indians. They should be in the wildcard chase right until the end of the season and could actually sneak into the playoffs.
Minnesota Twins – The Twins probably have the best battery combination, Johan Santana and Joe Mauer, in all of baseball. They have the human highlight reel in Centerfielder Torii Hunter. They have the best bullpen and one of the best closers, Joe Nathan, in baseball. In spite of all this, the Twins will be lucky to finish 3rd in this division. They are lucky that the Tigers and Royals play in the same division and are terrible. It seems that their talented farm system and unwillingness to spend money to sign players because of their knucklehead cheap owner, Carl Pohland, has finally caught up with this once powerful and proud franchise.
Detroit Tigers – Dysfunctional is the best way to describe this franchise. They fired Alan Trammel at the end of last season, even though he was a hometown hero and was supposed to be the person to see the team through these growing pains, even though they lost 119, 90 and 91 under his tenure. The Tigers went and hired Jim Leyland out of retirement who readily admitted that he did not even know half the players on his roster. I know Leyland was successful in the past, and Jack McKeon’s success in Florida in 2003 might have sparked Detroit management to reach deep for Leyland. However, is he really a rebuilding type, who is ready to lose 80-90 games again this season? I don’t know who the candidates were, but a younger managerial candidate probably deserved this job, rather than a recycled manager.
Kansas City Royals – I am not sure that KC is any better than their Triple-A affiliate in Omaha, who finished 4th out of 8 in their Pacific Coast League Division. The uninspiring Buddy Bell leads this young team in battle, and there seem to be no indications that this year’s version will be any better or different from the past few years, where they have lost 100 or more three out of the past four seasons. Mike Sweeney returns, to become the subject of trade rumors come July. Mike MacDougal overcame arm and control problems to regain the closers role, and if he remains consistent could become trade bait as well. It almost seems as if the Royals have become like the KC Athletics in the 60’s, a farm team for the rest of the league, where its players are not retained or traded to the upper echelon to become superstars elsewhere. Where have you gone George Brett?
AL WEST
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, California West Coast, Pacific Time Zone, USA – The Angels remain the cream of the crop in the west, though I can never be sure what there actual franchise name is going to be. I think with NHL’s Anaheim Mighty Ducks dropping the Mighty part of their name, maybe the Angels should become the LA Mighty Angels, but again this is another story. The Angels remain the team to beat primarily because the Oakland Athletics keep trying to convince us that Moneyball is the way to go, and prefers to spend time and effort on analytics and won’t pony up the cash for quality players, and Seattle and Texas are projected to be not good.
The starting pitching is good, but not great across the board. They have one large starting pitcher in Bartolo Colon, one young in John Lackey, a converted closer in Kelvim Escobar, one sophomore in Ervin Santana, and one journeyman with 6 career starts in Henry Carrasco. They have a top notch closer in Francisco Rodriguez and a bullpen that is second only to the Twins. I think this team is going to have tough time outside their division with this pitching, and I see many high scoring affairs, which is going to put an even heavier burden on the bullpen.
The offense is going to score many runs with RF Vlad Guerrero, 3b Chone Figgins, LF Garratt Anderson, and CF Darin Erstad. Casey Kotchman gets the nod at 1b, and Dallas MacPherson still needs to be proving he can play at the major league level. If this team is able to acquire Manny Ramirez from the Red Sox, then there will be no stopping this juggernaut until October, when they will most assuredly crash and burn in the playoffs.
Oakland Athletics – The one thing the A’s have going for them is they probably have the best starting pitching west of Chicago. They are led by former CY Young winner Barry Zito, along with the homegrown Rich Harden, Danny Haren, Joe Blanton and imported free agent Esteban Loaiza. I am concerned because Harden, Haren and Blanton are all young, with a ton of potential. It just begs the question are we looking at another case of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, where the Cubs just threw those young arms right into the ground, and now neither of them have been injury free for the past two or three seasons. Manager Ken Macha, needs to make sure he does not blow out an elbow or a shoulder on these young guns. This makes the Athletics almost the Anti-Angels in that they have pitching but virtually no hitting.
The A’s offense will be led this year by the acquisition of the Frank “Big Hurt” Thomas, whose nickname used to be about his bat and now it refers to his body. Thomas will be the DH, and will be surrounded with a bunch of up and coming players like SS Bobby Crosby, 1b Dan Johnson, LF Nick Swisher and experience Veterans like 3b Eric Chavez, CF Mark Kotsay, C Jason Kendall and notorious hothead RF Milton Bradley. This team will be competitive but will fall out of contention in August, after the trading deadline. If they get off slow start then look for them to put some of their pitchers on the trading block.
Seattle Mariners – I put the Mariners above the Rangers only because one of these teams needs to finish in 3rd and one needs to be in 4th. I question the wisdom of bringing in a catcher who speaks neither English nor Spanish, the primary language of 95% of the pitchers in the major leagues, but that is exactly what the Mariners did this year by signing Kenji Johjima. The players that have come to the United States from Japan have been generally very good and I am sure that Johjima is also a good suspicious catcher, and a decent hitter, at least that is the scouting report. However, how is he going to communicate with his pitchers, and control a ball game as a catcher is supposed to if he cannot even speak the same language. The appeal of a Japanese player in the Pacific Northwest probably makes sense from a marketing perspective; I am just not convinced this move makes sense in a competitive sense. I hope I am proven wrong and he excels and the Seattle pitching staff raves about working with this guy, but paint me red with skepticism.
The other big story out of Seattle this year will be the continued development of Felix Hernandez, the best 19 year old to play in the major leagues since Dwight Gooden in 1984. I hope that he continues to flash brilliance and give the hope for the M’s in the years to come. Otherwise it is just watching 90 year Jamie Moyer, an injury prone Joel Pineiro, and retreads Gil Meche and Jarrod Washburn. Their closer is “Everyday” Eddie Guardado, who really isn’t everyday anymore, since he is often injured. The bullpen is below average, with only JJ Putz standing out, because his last name is Yiddish for penis.
The offense is nothing to write home about with Ichiro looking to collect 200 hits again and get back on track this year, after an off year in 2005. Adrian Beltre seems to be a hit year wonder, (his contract year with the Dodgers), and shows no signs his old bat is going to return anytime soon. Jeremy Reed was the most coveted CF this off-season after Johnny Damon, which makes absolutely no sense. Reed hit .254/3/45 with 15 stolen bases. I don’t know why everyone is raving about him, but it seems reasonable he will be traded by the All-Star break.
Texas Rangers – Tom Hicks has done nothing with this franchise since he flushed ¼ billion dollars down the drain when he signed Alex Rodriguez in 2001. This years team will have a number of big boppers with 1b Mark Texiera, 3b Hank Blalock and SS Michael Young. The outfield is average with Brad Wilkerson, the jewel of the Alfonso Soriano trade with the Nationals, David Dellucci and Kevin Mench. The pitching seems to be starting from scratch with Kevin Millwood, Adam Eaton and Vincente Padilla all making their Ranger debuts this season. They have a good to great closer in Francisco Cordero, but won’t have many opportunities to use him.
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