Pujols and Ichiro for the Baseball Hall of Fame?

When the editors of Zisk sent out notifications looking for submissions about Albert Pujols or Ichiro Suzuki , I was on vacation and reading Bill James “Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame”. Since I don’t have any personal anecdotes about Albert Pujols or Ichiro Suzuki; as I have never seen Ichiro play in person and have only seen Pujols play live once in the 2006 NLCS Game 7. (He went 0-2 with two walks, nothing outstanding or substantial. I don’t need to remind any of you Met fans that he was not the hero of this game, hello Yadier Molina.) SO I figured I would do an analysis to determine if either is worthy of Cooperstown enshrinement at this point in time, 10 years into their respective MLB careers.

Before reading this book, my opinion of who deserves to be in the Hall of Fame was somewhat subjective, essentially was the player considered to be the best player at his position for the period of time he played. Here is an excerpt from a previous piece I wrote for Zisk back in 2005 on the Hall of Fame standards:

“Let me start off in a broad category of what type of player does not belong in the hall of fame. Mediocre or above average players, who might have had a few good years, but has not performed over the long term. Compilers, players who played beyond their years even though their statistics continued to fall, but they hang on to reach some individual goal, that baseball anointed as being hall of fame numbers, don’t belong in the hall of fame (hello Don Sutton, and Dave Winfield). Quite simply, was the player good enough to be great and elite by the standard of being held up against his peers of the day, if yes, then you can argue they should be in the hall, if you can name 2-5 players better then that player at the same position, then I would say they are good, but not great and should not be in the Cooperstown.

“The Hall-of-Fame should be reserved for the best of the best at the time they played the game; those individuals who performed almost every year of their career significantly above the league average. During the steroid era, hitters were hitting the ball better than ever before, so just because you have averaged 30 HR’s during this period does not make you a hall of famer, since many players have routinely hit 50+ in the time frame. The bar on which we measure needs to be moved up or down over time based upon the level of competition, the ball parks, the expansion and many other factors.”

So with this standard in mind, let’s first consider these two players. Pujols is an absolute no brainer. Pujols has not only been the best first baseman consistently over the past 10 years, but he has to be considered one of the best players in the game as well. The only comparison might be Alex Rodriguez, whose reputation has been tainted by steroids, where Pujols has been clean to date. The only other first baseman that could be considered great over the past decade is Todd Helton and Lance Berkman, but he is not equal to Pujols by any standard, with Helton having played 50% of his games in Colorado’s thin air could have skewed his numbers upwards and Berkman has been injury prone. Some of the other young studs like Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, and Mark Teixeira have been good but not in the same category as Pujols yet over the past decade.

With Ichiro it becomes a bit more complicated. In the aught decade there have been numerous outfielders that could be considered great, some polluted by steroids, some remain clean. They include Vlad Guerrero, Manny Ramirez, Barry Bonds, Andruw Jones, Carlos Beltran, Torii Hunter and Johnny Damon. Unfortunately as a player in the steroid era I am not sure how to measure Ichiro. He is a throwback to the dead ball era, a strong armed singles hitter, who is adept at moving the runner and knows how to take the extra base. His baseball knowledge is off the charts, however he does not have the offensive prowess of Vlad, Bonds or Manny, (nor does he have the stench of steroids). He does have the defensive skills of Beltran, Hunter and Jones, and he possesses 9 gold gloves to prove it. However, as Bill Mazerowski has shown defense does not get you into the Hall of Fame.

I am not sure if playing in Seattle, on a lot of mediocre teams has hurt my perception of Suzuki as opposed to someone like Damon who was always on winning teams, in the playoffs and prominently displayed here on the East Coast playing for the Red Sox and Yankees. If we just consider Ichiro’s MLB stats and exclude his body of work from the Japanese leagues then I am not sure he stands out amongst this group and can be considered the greatest of his era. Quite frankly other than Bonds and Ramirez no other OF stands out as being great over the past ten years and is worthy of induction based upon my gut, which is purely subjective.

Now if we look at the numbers, Pujols again remains as close to a perfect Hall of Fame candidate (numbers via baseball-reference.com through July 20, 2010):

Albert Pujols:

Black Ink*	Batting - 39, Average HOFer ≈ 27
Gray Ink**	Batting - 213, Average HOFer ≈ 144
Hall of Fame Monitor	Batting - 230, Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards	Batting - 50, Average HOFer ≈ 50

In all of these categories, Pujols is off the charts in all areas except the Hall of Fame Standards where his perfectly in line with those already enshrined.

More interesting is to look at what players have similar stats at the same age (29 for Pujols). These comparables are all in the HOF or will be eventually and include Jimmie Foxx, Hank Aaron, Lou Gerhig, Ken Griffey Jr., Frank Robinson, Mickey Mantle, Juan Gonzalez, Mel Ott, Hank Greenberg and Orlando Cepeda. I think there is little doubt that there is no one on this list except Gonzalez, who belongs enshrined in Cooperstown. This further reinforces the belief that Pujols has got what it takes.

By Age	Age	G	AB	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
Albert Pujols	29	1491	5485	1130	1822	410	388	1179	872	615	0.332	0.426	0.625
Jimmie Foxx	29	1561	5551	1216	1852	313	379	1345	985	859	0.334	0.442	0.617
Hank Aaron	29	1511	5940	1077	1898	321	342	1121	541	609	0.319	0.373	0.569
Lou Gerhig	29	1232	4542	1075	1558	321	267	1146	806	508	0.365	0.453	0.643
Ken Griffey Jr.	29	1535	5832	1063	1742	320	398	1152	747	984	0.297	0.379	0.563
Frank Robinson	29	1502	5527	1043	1673	318	324	1009	698	789	0.302	0.389	0.553

Career	Yrs	G	AB	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
Albert Pujols	10	1491	5485	1130	1822	410	388	1179	872	615	0.332	0.426	0.625
Jimmie Foxx	20	2317	8134	1751	2646	458	534	1922	1452	1311	0.325	0.428	0.609
Hank Aaron	23	3298	12364	2174	3771	624	755	2297	1402	1383	0.305	0.374	0.555
Lou Gerhig	17	2164	8001	1888	2721	534	493	1995	1508	790	0.34	0.447	0.632
Ken Griffey Jr	22	2671	9801	1662	2781	524	630	1836	1312	1779	0.284	0.37	0.538
Frank Robinson	21	2808	10006	1829	2943	528	586	1812	1420	1532	0.294	0.389	0.537

Ichiro Suzuki

Black Ink*	Batting - 36, Average HOFer ≈ 27
Gray Ink**	Batting - 129, Average HOFer ≈ 144
Hall of Fame Monitor	Batting - 204, Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards	Batting - 36, Average HOFer ≈ 50

Ichiro is on track with the Black Ink Standard and HOF Monitor, but falls short on the gray ink and HOF Standard. This means Ichiro has led the league in categories, but does not come close to leading in other (power) categories. Pujols on the other hand is a more complete offensive player and has led or been in the Top 10 for most offensive categories.

For Ichiro, it appears he is veering away from the Hall of Fame standards; when we compare him to similar batters for him by age 35 include Jack Tobin, Wally Moses, Ken Griffey Sr. Mickey Rivers, Dom DiMaggio, Kenny Lofton, Willie McGee and Pete Fox. These are all good players, but not one of them is great, nor are any of them in Cooperstown and I think we can all agree that they should not be there.

Career	Age	G	AB	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
Ichiro	35	1519	6481	1008	2151	246	87	542	442	646	0.332	0.337	0.432
Jack Tobin	35	1619	6174	936	1906	294	64	581	508	267	0.309	0.364	0.42
Wally Moses	35	1576	6203	953	1838	364	82	568	661	377	0.296	0.364	0.423
Ken Griffey Sr	35	1539	5636	914	1689	293	100	649	565	683	0.300	0.364	0.434
Mickey Rivers	35	1468	5629	785	1660	247	61	499	266	471	0.295	0.326	0.385
Dom Dimaggio	35	1396	5637	1046	1679	308	87	618	750	570	0.298	0.383	0.419

Career	Yrs	G	AB	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
Ichiro	10	1519	6481	1008	2151	246	87	542	442	646	0.332	0.337	0.432
Jack Tobin	13	1619	6174	936	1906	294	64	581	508	267	0.309	0.364	0.42
Wally Moses	17	2012	7356	1124	2138	435	89	679	821	457	0.291	0.364	0.416
Ken Griffey Sr.	19	2097	7229	1129	2143	364	152	859	719	898	0.296	0.359	0.431
Mickey Rivers	15	1468	5629	785	1660	247	61	499	266	471	0.295	0.327	0.397
Dom DiMaggio	11	1399	5640	1046	1680	308	87	618	750	571	0.298	0.383	0.419

The biggest knock against Ichiro is that he played 9 years, starting at age 18 in the Japanese Pacific League for the Orix Blue Wave. He did not arrive in the MLB until he was 27. If we include his stats from the Japanese League and assume that there level of play is equivalent to the MLB, then he should go in. If we assume that the JPL is like our minor leagues, then he should not be enshrined because he does not qualify on the subjective side, nor does he really cut it on the quantitative side either based strictly upon his MLB stats. If the BBWA wants to equate him to Jackie Robinson, saying that he was the first breakthrough Japanese star here, then that is perfectly acceptable as well.

Finally, on a completely separate note, the one thing that bothered me about the Bill James book was his contention that Don Sutton (which was written in 1995, prior to Suttons induction in 1998) belongs in the Hall of Fame simply because he had compiled 300 wins. It still bothers me that this guy got in, since he was never considered by anybody during his career to be elite and amongst the top 10 pitchers in any given year he played. Although I consider Dave Winfield, a player who played too long simply to pad his stats in order to improve his chances of gaining access to the Hall of Fame, I have to concede he was considered amongst the top players in many of the years he played ball.

*Black Ink: Named so because league leading numbers are traditionally represented with Boldface type. The definition for the test that I'm using here was written up in Bill James. The essential point is to measure how often a player led the league in a variety of "important" stats. This method penalizes more recent players as they have 14-16 teams per league, while the older players had just 8. To get a point you must lead the league in that category.

Batting Statistics

• Four Points for home runs, runs batted in or batting average
• Three Points for runs scored, hits or slugging percentage
• Two Points for doubles, walks or stolen bases
• One Point for games, at bats or triples

** Gray Link: Essentially the same as the Black-Ink above, but it counts appearances in the top ten of the league. For each appearance the values are below. As with the Black Ink, this method penalizes more recent players as they have 14-16 teams per league, while the older players had just 8. To get a point you must be in the top 10 in the league in that category.

Batting Statistics

• Four Points for home runs, runs batted in or batting average
• Three Points for runs scored, hits or slugging percentage
• Two Points for doubles, walks or stolen bases
• One Point for games, at bats or triples

Jeff is a rabid baseball fan and baseball card collector. Realizing his dream of playing Major League Baseball died in a plane crash outside Canton OH in August 1979, he set his sights on becoming a nerd instead. Immersing himself in statistics long before SABR came to reality. After SABR was formed, he realized he was not really as quantitative as he once thought, since he could not follow anything they were saying. Now, he lives in Suburban CT with his wife, 3 kids and dog, fighting the local board of education to make our schools more successful and praying the wife will let him watch the last inning of tonight’s Yankee game after another crappy reality program on every channel out there.

This was written exclusively for Zisk Magazine #19